FWIW - I think the small business market is actually very suitable for former SWE's. The capacity to troubleshoot processes, variance, bottlenecks, etc. is what turns a mom& pop shop into a regional chain.
I think you underestimate how many people would be willing to battle a computer if it meant doubling their salaries. Think of all the teachers with STEM degrees being paid $60k, if someone offered them $120k to prompt a computer for a while I'm sure many would come running.
Disclaimer; I often feel dread around my career fading and needing to switch to a field I don't like & won't be paid well in.
That said, I think the rational perspective is "things will be fine, basically".
I tried writing a longer reply but organized thought drifted into ramblings about economics I only partially understand. TL;DR I think some opportunities will close and others will open, and current engineers will find a home. Mostly software architecture or as technical advisors for product companies (if everyone writes code, you need some Dude Who Knows It Well to guide the non-engineers when they get stuck. Akin to IT).
I think wages will stagnate but wages are generally inflated, if we're being honest. As much as I love my doctor-level salary, I can honestly say I don't deserve it.
I had a comment deleted by reddit admin & it banned my account, I appealed and received a message apologizing for the mistake and they unblocked my comment. But my entire account is still banned! Screw the comment I want my old account back. I've appealed many times but of course, no response. It's just being sent into the void.
Seems there is just no reason to use the website anymore. Either you post the most boring hive-mind nonsense, or otherwise just get banned.
IMO the community will fracture in two directions. Reddit's differentiator over Instragram, twitter etc. is that it's community based rather than individual based (with the algo making psuedo communities)
I feel some users will leach into platforms that created even more walled gardens, i.e. Discord, or platforms that reduce the sense of walled gardens i.e. Twitter.
Reddit seems to follow the psuedo community flow. In my account's feed, I started seeing communities of people's whose accounts I looked at (or maybe clicked into, but didn't follow).
Instead of platforms expecting the user to inform who/what to follow, they infer from user behaviors.
> I think Stack Overflow went dead because of AI specifically
This doesn't hold up when looking at usage charts. There is a clear peak around ~2015 with a steady decline through to now. LLM's came to market in their current form in the last couple years, and took a couple years to be broadly adopted. There was a clear and obvious market fall off way before AI / LLM.
> Reddit isn't comparable
I agree with that in isolation; but since I don't agree with the AI premise this isn't especially relevant. I don't think AI will replace Reddit, I think one of the other major platforms will absorb it's users like Reddit / Hackerrank / better documentation / back searching absorbed SO's users through 2015-2021
Stack Overflow is dead because of AI. Devs can get quicker answers with less hassle with AI. Without AI there is no other option for amateur devs to get answers, so Stack Overflow would otherwise still be used. This isn't difficult logic.
Then explain the usage chart declining since ~2015?
As I said in my original post, LLM was the final nail in the coffin. I'm not arguing they aren't related. I'm saying they SO was falling long before LLM's took over. This isn't difficult logic.
SO falling before AI doesn't preclude AI killing SO. You aren't listening to anything I've been saying. Your graph is meaningless. If it wasn't for AI, SO would still be used. It isn't more complicated than that.
Not gonna keep going back and forth when you seem to agree but are choosing to be difficult. We agree SO was falling before LLM's hit the market. We agree LLM's accelerated SO's demise.
You seem to think they weren't failing before LLM (simply rapidly losing member activity), which is a narrative that I won't follow.
When you load a random content page, the top 50% of the page is a question, the bottom 50% is an ad that is designed to look like a comment, and the entire right panel is ads. Quora is more ads than content, you have to scroll and decipher what is or isn't an ad based on their greyed 2px font ad disclaimer.
I used to throw loads of parties. At somepoint I realized..
1. It's expensive. I never once got a reasonable contribution from my friends. I knew this at the time, but eventually I was over it. Paying $100-250 per event just to deal with all the work and drama that comes with it.. not worth.
2. It's a lot of work. Hours of prep, hours of hosting, hours of clean up after. At the end of the day ~12 hours of effort for ~4 hours of fun is not a good ROI.
3. It frequently was an excuse to get drunk or high. Which is fun, whatever. But as I grew more health conscious, this was less and less appealing. I can drink on my own if I want.
4. There are better alternatives. I don't have to do any of the above options if I just jump on Discord for a while. Or join a rec league sport. Or spend it with my family.
I don't think the point of a party is "ROI" either in terms of the dimensions of time, effort, or money. When I decide to host one, this kind of "cost" is assumed. I don't worry about it because I can afford it (in all three dimensions), and the point of hosting a get-together is not to make a profit on any of those dimensions or break even. I look at it as: I'm spending time+effort+money, and the return, for myself and everyone who attends, is not any of those three. It's getting some much needed socialization and a fun experience. I guess your point is that you're not getting as much fun out of it to justify the spend?
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