Will there be increase in production if the 3 companies that make the RAM decide they can profit more by keeping production mostly the same and flogging it for 10x the price of a couple of years ago to a few AI companies happy to burn cash?
China spoiling the party is still the system working though. The price of ram is so high that it makes sense for new producers to start to exist. The fact that all the ram in the world comes from 3 suppliers is a big problem, and the high prices are a forcing function for solving that problem
Something one could say about a high fever being a sign of the immune system working. There are obvious temporary and permanent risks to how the system works, and there are limits beyond which everything simply breaks down. It's best not to have a fever at all.
Well put. Indeed non-free market solutions typically rely on some impossible conditions, in your comparison that would be "just don't get sick". But people will get sick. You can't just "not have a fever at all".
> "just don't get sick". But people will get sick. You can't just "not have a fever at all".
PPE, quarantining and other containment measures exist to broadly prevent sickness, but I imagine not in a universe that is about the free market at all costs, to strain the allegory further. If people keep getting sick with a recognizable pattern, someone ought to look into that, and prevent future outbreaks.
> PPE, quarantining and other containment measures exist to broadly prevent sickness
But people won't wear PPE and quarantine and do other containment measures (and not because of free market). Also PPE, quarantining and other containment measures are not perfect and probably will never be. So yeah, again naive, idealistic view that perfectly fits naive anti-free market narratives that require impossible conditions to work.
We're in a pretty big bubble predicated on the idea that AI is going to have a lot more value than it actually will. Not that it's not going to be useful, it just isn't going to be the incredible force multiplier the market thinks it is. This speculation, gas prices, tariffs, etc. are going to result in a 2009-ish bubble pop I'm guessing which will be triggered by particularly bad private credit default news (perhaps a sizable bank failing?) and or some major news triggering the reevaluation of the AI hype poking at some systemic banking issue or another.
I'm not saying your wrong, and I'm not trying to be antagonistic, but when I read your comment, I uncontrollably began imagining I was reading one of those reader-submitted comments in a newspaper about the internet in the 90s. Again, I'm not saying you're wrong, but I was somehow teleported to a future in which AI is ever-present in the same way the net is now and trying to reconcile your viewpoint, which was impossible.
Of course, my hallucination does not dismiss the possibility that we are in a bubble. Wasn't CSCO something like 200x PE during the dot com bubble? People see immense potential in an idea but don't know how to properly price it, and so we get what is seen as essentially infinite expected growth priced into companies and their products.
My $3k laptop has nearly the best components on the market right now. The problem is that it has a poor build (MSI) and is falling apart in a way that's not repairable. I looked into purchasing an equivalent-or-better laptop, and I couldn't find anything under $6 for essentially the same specs, and over $10k for a significant upgrade. Though I need my laptop for work, I decided just to ride it out till it's death.
Don't forget that this is all intentional and by design. If the tech oligarchs have their way we will all have no choice but to rent compute by the token within the next 3-5 years. The era of the personal computer is over. Current supply chains & production capacity can't accomodate both the AI hyperscalers and regular consumers.
> Memory used to be worth more than gold by weight, and still every stick was sold.
And right before that, was it dirt cheap? No? Slightly different scenario then.
> GPUs, flight controllers, etc went sky high during the pandemic and we still buy them today.
They're even more now...
> Hard drives got way more expensive during flooding, and we still have local storage.
Nowhere near as expensive as they are now, nowhere near as high a jump in price in a short period of time as now. Plus, there was a defined end point of "flood over, back to normal." There is no "AI data center build out over, back to normal" in sight.
I'm so unsure why someone was working so hard to wedge such doubt amid such clearness. Yes, well said, very core clear differences you raise, my thanks.
Tulips just look pretty. That's a mania. I think we recognize the mental agility that having compute fan give people, that we acknowledge this bicycle of the mind as potentially freeing liberating and virtually travelling.
Have things gotten this much more expensive at the same time that massive datacenters are harmonically distorting power delivery [0] to the point that it degrades the lifetime of your existing devices?
The AI datacenters are making things more expensive and at the same time destroying existing electronics. All this is happening at the same time that the major OS vendors are locking down their operating systems and creating device attestation frameworks.
Whether it is a coordinated effort behind the scenes is irrelevant, the real outcome of all of this is that the average home tech prosumer will not be able to afford to maintain personal hardware that remains compatible with mainstream services.
In light of the consumer market RAM shortages, all the consumer devices will transition to thin client architectures that offload all their real compute to the centralized cloud. You will not be allowed to modify these devices, and there will be nothing you can modify them to do. They will have no ports, using wireless charging and wireless connectivity, and likely even any UART will be left off the board, if you can get them open at all. Like the Apple Watch or Airpods, they will not be built to be openable, and opening them will be an irreversibly destructive act.
You will not be able to buy these devices, they will only be available on a subscription basis. You will own nothing and be told you should be happy.
Online major digital services will only be compatible with these devices, offering no endpoints for third party devices to connect.
It's always been a good idea to have a UPS in front of any digital electronics anyway.
Brown-outs are arguably more dangerous to your electronics, and those are more common now with more frequent heat waves during the summer, stressing the electric grid and triggering public safety shutoffs on the US west coast.
I also think the concerns in the article are overblown. I grew up in the mountains where the electric grid was notoriously poor quality, especially when buildings would fail over to (often poor-quality) generators. It would make computer monitors misbehave, but rarely did it actually damage anything.
Again, good luck affording a UPS when price hikes really kick off. If there is no workstation market, even for small businesses, what happens to the UPS market?
You're acting like Apple wouldn't simply make hay in a world of thin client device subscriptions, where they can charge a subscription for the thin client device and the services that make it usable.
Trillion dollar companies like Apple will still be able to get their hands on whatever they need, albeit at worse prices. Individual consumers trying to buy those components directly probably won't.
Either the factories are gone or China controls them and takes most of the output for themselves. They've already been excluded from a good amount of the output!
How would that work? They can't take the fabs (single door opened and dust makes it all useless) and even if they could they can't run ASML machines with their support. So... labor camp fabs on unmaintained STOA hardware from a single company everybody relies on? I can't imagine that scenario. Either they manage to redeploy the whole value chain (not saying it's impossible but doesn't seem to be the case at scale for now) or taking Taiwan by force is mostly a political show, not a technological one.
My argument is that they would add an exception for TSMC in the event that Taiwan fell under Chinese control. The alternative would be an extreme supply shock to the industry that's responsible for most stock market and GDP growth in America.
As I said China is indeed already working on their entire value chain. They have been doing that for a while and they have made significant progress. Still so far they don't have the precision, scale and economical competitiveness than TSMC. If they get there then it will be a totally different scenario but that's not the case for now.
If TSMC were to simply disappear, it would be a great day for Samsung/Intel but a godawful catastrophe for most HPC applications and consumer hardware. People aren't afraid of a fab takeover, they're afraid of TSMC disappearing altogether.
If China has proven one thing, they can just rebuild the factories, sure it will be 5-8 years of depression but afterwards they will control a dominate player.
In that case my retro hardware collection will be worth even more. (Note: that my current hardware will likely be retro faster than I assume it would have been)
I also found out recently my matched, working 3d hardware from the '90s was worth more than my actual year-old medium-high end video card, so who knows!
/s for obvious reasons, except the rise in prices of 3dfx cards ffs (wtaf).
My library was recently asking for donations and they said the reason is more people are loaning out digital books which are significantly more expensive. I don't recall the details on the flyer though.
any software specifically? I remember like 5 years ago or so seeing someone taking a photo with a DLSR of a chipped stair step and 3d printing an addition to it which filled the chipped part like a glove and it was looking like a lego brick.
I haven't found it though. Only some "Kiri Engine" which requires phone.
Not sure if there's anything preventing this from happening in North America but in Japan there are stores that literally just sold broken down bulk items bought at Costco.
Yeah I still write WPF Software today and it's as stable as it's ever been. Kind of nice to have a UI framework frozen in time tbh.
Maui on the other hand.. I don't get why it exists. It's like the worst of both worlds between desktop and mobile. My understanding is it's rebranded Xamarin which would explain some stuff...
Wow weird. I've lived there and never knew but now that you've pointed that out I'm realizing we never parked on the street. It's always at the house or the parking lot of the place we're going.
Of course 95% of the time we take the train. Only use a car to go to Costco or possibly go out to the country (even then a lot of remote areas are super accessible in public transit)
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