>for hiring a team to build a frontier model? These kind of rules will make PBCs weaker not stronger
Weaker is fine if those working there are actually true to the mission for the mission, are not for the profit.
Same with FOSS really, e.g. I'd rather have a weaker Linux that's an actual comminity project run by volunteers, than a stronger Linux that's just corporate agendas, corporate hires with an open license on top.
It's a mechanism to distribute profits to shareholders. Do you invest in companies that don't distribute profits - does this get you some kind of higher return?
It’s effectively the company saying that they believe the shareholders can get a better return by investing that money elsewhere. So when a company starts doing major buybacks it’s a signal that they have reached an inflection point.
If you want 100x returns - do you find a $500B company or a $5B one?
All ASML is doing is raising the share price. The investors that don't want a better deal somewhere else don't have to do a thing - they just have to not sell their shares. ASML is not deciding anything or signaling anything about future returns.
The market is the one sending the signal that there are better deals elsewhere. You can go from $5B to $500B. You can't go from $500B to $50T. There is no amount of R&D that will do that. If you picked a $5-6 billion company in 2008, and it was ASML, congratulations you now have >100x returns.
The inflection point isn't a point where buybacks increase, it's the slow/fast ride up to $500 billion.
The investors chasing 100x returns have already left. Whether the company buys its own shares or sits on its own cash, the net equity value is the same. The only signal it gives to investors is that they have more cash than they want to spend.
From the company perspective, performing buyback when market is high is just throwing cash by the windows to over-priced shares. If they wanted to distribute cash, they could just use dividends
1. From the perspective of shareholders, and for the moment ignoring taxes, buybacks and dividends are exactly economically equivalent. If a dividend happens, you get some cash. If a buyback happens, the value of your shares goes up. Crucially, the amount by which each share's price goes up is equal to what the per-share dividend would have been. It's a useful exercise to work this out and convince yourself that it's true.
2. Now let's stop ignoring taxes. If a dividend happens, you get taxed that year. If the value of your shares goes up, you don't get taxed that year. Instead, you get taxed whenever you sell, which might be later when you retire and are in a lower tax bracket, or after a period of some years when you get a lower capital gains tax rate.
3. Now let's think about the effect of dividends vs buybacks on the allocation of your portfolio as a shareholder. Neither changes the total value of your portfolio -- that was point number 1, plus just plain old conservation of dollars, modulo taxes -- but a dividend increases the proportion of your investment that's in cash, while a buyback keeps it constant. Let's say you auto-invest all dividends in the S&P 500 or equivalent index fund. Then dividends reduce your ownership stake in the company, while buybacks keep it constant.
For these reasons, most investors prefer (or ought to prefer) buybacks: they have the same economic effect as dividends but allow you to defer taxes to whenever is optimal for you. Also, and this is a smaller point, if a company does a dividend then you have to actively do something (that is, buy stock) in order to maintain the same proportion of your portfolio in that company. In other words, if you want 10% of your savings to be in X, and they do a dividend, then you have to take the cash and buy shares of X. The reason this is a smaller point is that at least in theory you can get your brokerage to do this for you automatically.
There are some nuances where point number 1 fails to hold: signaling, bad execution of the buybacks, and principal-agent conflicts. The big example of that final point is executive compensation tied to specific share prices. I'm not an expert in this area so I don't know, off the top of my head, if there's real evidence either way that this effect is very large, but it's one that people will bring up so everyone who thinks about this ought to know about it.
This is not quite correct. If a dividend happens, the market capitalisation drops by the amount of the dividend, the number of shares remains constant, so the share price dips by the amount of the dividend per share. All investors get the dividend.
If a buyback happens, the market capitalisation drops by the amount of the buyback, and the number of shares drops by the same ratio, keeping the share price initially constant. The money goes to the investors who sell.
Buybacks are nevertheless good for investors who hold. They now have shares in a company whose market cap is 100% growing enterprise, instead of 90% enterprise and 10% bag of money. That means that if the company keeps doing well, the share price will increase faster than it would have done otherwise (it will also drop faster - it's no longer anchored to an inert pile of cash).
The investors who sell are wealthier by amount $X because now they have fewer shares and more dollars.
The investors who don't sell are wealthier by the same amount $X because the shares they kept are worth more, because prices go up.
> keeping the share price initially constant.
This statement is definitely incorrect, unless you're being very technicaly and pedantic about "initially". You can think about it theoretically or you can look at empirical evidence. It is well-supported empirically that share prices go up after buybacks, and in fact they do so quantitatively by exactly the amount necessary for the equation implied above to hold.
No, this is incorrect. Investors like buybacks, so when the buyback is announced, share prices may rise, but certainly not by the amount of the buyback. They don't go up when the buyback gets executed, unlike dividends, which decrease the share price at the moment when they get distributed.
The equations are:
nr_shares * share_price = cash_of_company + value_of_company_excluding_cash.
In a buyback, cash_of_company decreases by the buyback, and nr_shares decreases by buyback / share_price.
Consider the extreme case, a lemonade stand with a bank account with $1M. 1000 shares outstanding, share price $1000. After a buyback of $900K is announced, 900 shares are sold for $1000. $100K remains in the company's bank account, 100 shares remain outstanding, at ... $1000 per share.
> If the value of your shares goes up, you don't get taxed that year. Instead, you get taxed whenever you sell, which might be later when you retire and are in a lower tax bracket, or after a period of some years when you get a lower capital gains tax rate.
This is actually not true in the Netherlands, which taxes unrealized gains on wealth. Quite unique. But NL also features a dividend tax, which politicians tried to get rid off but didn't succeed because it was such an unpopular plan.
> In other words, if you want 10% of your savings to be in X, and they do a dividend, then you have to take the cash and buy shares of X.
Wouldn't the inverse of this be true in buybacks though? If it's economically equivalent then buyback should increase the price and similarly increase the proportion of X in your portfolio - which would force you to rebalance (might have tax implications).
Dividends and capital gains have different treatment in a number of tax codes. In the UK for example when you have high income the dividend marginal tax is 39.35% but CGT only 24% with a higher tax free allowance (500 for dividends 3000 for cgt)
'Tax evasion' is when you are breaking the law. There are various other names, like 'tax optimisation' or 'tax avoidance' is when you do it legal. And the boundaries of what you can call 'tax avoidance' are fuzzy: when in Singapore, I eat out a lot more and pay someone else to clean my home. When in Germany, taxes on labour are too high, so I cook and clean myself. Is that 'tax avoidance' and refusing to 'pay my share'?
It's definitely a change in behaviour induced by taxation.
Another example in Germany both capital gains and dividends are taxed. Capital gains are (mostly) only taxed when you sell, dividends are taxed straight away. But each year you can get a small amount of dividends tax free. So it's tax efficient to structure your capital returns to first max out that tax free allowance, and take the rest as capital gains.
That's annoying and complicated.
Singapore is simpler and has lower taxes, so I don't bother optimising anything, and just let my decision be guided by whatever makes financial sense, without worrying about taxes. (In my case, I'm investing in accumulating funds that just never pay any dividends, but instead re-invest them straight away. That way I don't have to worry about re-investing dividends manually.)
Another example: when you have a carbon tax one of the intended consequences is for companies and people to change their affairs such that they emit less CO2, thus optimising their tax bill. The system only works when people 'avoid paying their share'.
So I don't think it's going to be executed at the absolute peak. But it does imply that the finance people in ASML believe that the stock is undervalued even if the market as a whole is at all time highs.
Why would I want to be constantly calling into code I have no control over, that may or may not exist, that may or may not be tampered with.
I lose control of the execution state. I have to follow the calling conventions which let my flags get clobbered.
To forego all of the above including link time optimization for the benefit of what exactly?
Imagine developing a C program where every object file produced during compilation was dynamically linked. It's obvious why that is a stupid idea - why does it become less stupid when dealing with a separate library?
You call into dynamic libraries so that you do not need to recompile and distribute new binaries to all your users whenever there is a security issue or other critical fix in any of the dependencies.
But if I get to Bring My Own Dependencies, then I know the exact versions of all my dependencies. That makes testing and development faster because I don’t have to expend effort testing across many different possible platforms. And if development is just generally easier, then maybe it’s easier to react expediently to security notices and release updates as necessary.. .
You would need to monitor all your dependencies (and their dependencies), compile new binaries for all supported platform each time their is an issue (which you likely learn about later), notify all your user, and distribute improved binaries. I think this is far more effort than using dynamic libraries and compiling for a couple of Linux distributions. And I would be surprised if entities distributing statically linked binaries actually do this (properly).
I am indeed the guy in the article. My side of the story is fairly boring, didn't do crime but got blamed for it anyway by desperate cops. The whole investigation has been bizarre, for example, no-one has ever searched my homes, or even attempted to seize my personal devices.
Should find out within the next couple of months if the appeals court decides to acquit.
The cryptocurrency analysis in this case reaches absurd conclusions and doesn't stand up to the slightest scrutiny. At best their analysis establishes a low-confidence link between me and the hacker, as it's impossible to tell what if any transactions took place between us. Just that an unknown amount of money may have traveled between our wallets.
One thing is certain though, the relevant sum in this case was 0.1 BTC paid by the police. Their analysis shows me receiving significantly more than that, with no explanation as to where the rest of the money originated. Coincidentally, the other person who was later charged in this case received pretty much exactly the 0.1 BTC according to the police report.
A pump and dump has to be false, misleading or deceptive. This is not the case here.
Edit: I have now read some of the complaint. This is just sec fraud, which is consistent with what the article is claiming. "The opposite of insider trading" ie trading in the direction of the advice you're giving.
Gov says the statements were material, false, with intent. If they can't prove false to the level of being a material statement they will lose.
Edit2: This comes right up to the line, whether it's material to have false/non-statements about your intentions. There's another case that will come up if you research this about whether intentions are material.
I literally linked my source. It's less than 7 minutes long. It's not that refineries are idle, it's that we have to import the heavy crude to keep them producing. Heavy crude went from 12% of imports to 70% as of 2025. The most relevant graphs, if you really can't stomach 7 minutes of video, are shown from 3:30 - 4:30ish in the video. And again, record production levels of shale oil is producing LIGHT crude. The information you're seeking has already been provided to you.
Are you from South America? Do you think the neighboring countries are happy about all the Venezuelan refugees? What about Guyana - do you think they would join sanctions in support of Venezuela?
Yes, I am, and yes I don’t particularly mind the immigrants.
Even if I did mind them, venezuelan immigrants are preferable to the US military invading my neighbours.
The TIAR? The one that says an attack on one is an attack on all, which both USA and Venezuela are members of? Fat lot of good that did to protect them.
But I don’t know why I bother to reply to you when given your “farmers with sticks” comment it’s clear that you’re a racist asshole.
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