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How often does this sort of thing happen? I'm guessing more than we think, either because we forget the news stories we read or because it isn't reported.

There was a COVID 19 lab leak in Taiwan about a year into the pandemic.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/4374289

Six errors contributed to this leak.


A while ago a researcher at the Univ. of Chicago died of the plague. Although most labs use a mutated form that can't get iron needed to reproduce, he had a medical condition that caused an excess of iron in his blood that might have yet the bacteria grow.

However, every year there's a few deaths in the US from the plague because it's present in a variety of animals. If you look worldwide, there's probably on the order of a thousand deaths annually.


In the US, chipmunks out west sometimes carry it. You go to a national park, you see a cute little chipmunk, you decide to feed it (which you're not supposed to do anyway), you get really close to it...

A few people get infected that way. Not a thousand a year, but some every few years.


Wow 500$ for an NGS kit to detect it before working there would have been money well spent

He was a professor so I think he started long before a NGS kit was even a thing. Also, the rumor seems to have been that he kept some personal items in the same fridge as samples and that there was cross-contamination or a mixup. All very much hearsay though.

Bubonic plague is known to be active in Colorado, I think there are a handful of cases each year

If you live in the Rocky Mountains try to avoid close contact with prairie dogs or animal carcasses and you'll be fine. If you catch it, get to a hospital quickly and take the antibiotics and you'll probably be fine. If you delay treatment you should use that time to get your affairs in order.

> avoid close contact with prairie dogs or animal carcasses and you'll be fine

I thought at least fleas could transfer it between mammals?


Current thought in the academy is that the flea-rat vector wasn't the dominant vector for the medieval plague "Black Death" mortality event, but human-flea-human. See also 2018 PNAS paper Katharine Dean, Nils Stenseth, Boris Schmid at Oslo. Basically, Northern Eurasian people were really gross, Mongols even moreso, and that provided the vector for a dominant human-flea-human spread. The rat vector, we're missing evidence that should be there: mass rat mortality; fast & huge mortality in areas with few rats; clustering followed human networks, not rodent networks. Also the kind of flea. Check the refs for more details.

The initial infection though, definitely from a central Eurasian rodent, likely a marmot somewhere near Kyrgyzstan.


Thus 'avoid close contact with prairie dogs'. The 'medieval rat/flea'-connection was a problem because rats and humans lived in close vicinity to each others. In colorado, that goes prairie dog->flea->other prarie dog, you'll find them on the animal, in the burrow, and on the carcass, but a flea doesn't hop 5 miles towards from through the desert.

Endemic in Antananarivo (very many deaths per year), not sure about the rest of Madagascar.

Janet Parker was the last person to die of smallpox and, yes, she caught it in a lab [1].

[1]: https://whyy.org/segments/the-tragic-case-of-smallpoxs-final...


There is an interesting (and frankly terrifying) book called biohazard by the former head of the soviet covert bioweapons program during the cold war and it seemed it was not that uncommon to have random screw ups at even high level labs resulting in the deaths of sometimes a lot of unfortunate people. Of course there was also a culture of cover up and not admitting mistakes as well for all sorts of reasons including the fact that they aren't supposed to be working on bioweapons in the first place as well as the usual punishments for screwing something up.

Also ask how much is this failed route procedures because organisms or viri of this variety won't continue without human sustainment which is prone to human failures...

That man has found a treasure of a woman!

This is the main takeaway from all this.

I did well in school and the praise I received for excelling in my math degree did shape my life and impact my motivations. I do like praise.

But outside of social reasons, it's understanding I crave. Thoroughly understanding a topic is awesome. I remember the feeling of acing my qualifier exam in grad school.

Those LLMs change nothing fundamentally about this motivation and need and capability. I can't type a prompt, hazily skim the wall of text, and come to comprehensive understanding. I still have to work.

What I like about LLMs is that they can increase my understanding by helping me learn more efficiently. What I don't like is the temptation to turn off my brain.


This week I helped a colleague with a bug. He used an LLM to sort it out before telling me about it.

I'm old fashioned, so I looked at the code, saw that it used an old lib and then I searched online for a newer version. Lo and behold, the bug had been ironed out.

AI makes it really easy to not think properly about your task.


That same story happens without LLM involvement. I’ve also seen LLM suggest updating a lib. So unfortunately nothing about this story speaks to a difference between LLM and human capabilities.


Exactly. I feel that agentic programming is largely turning what would have in the past been actual understanding into some kind of fluffy superficial pseudo "understanding" that's only barely good enough when assisted by AI.


how did his AI solve the bug? I've had cc recognize a bug was in an outdated lib and then update it to resolve the issue. Granted it made that determination by finding the source code to the lib, identifying the bug, and then verifying it was fixed by looking at the source of the updated lib.


AI told him to use an alternative function which was similar but didn't have the same bug.


AI providers are in fact incentivized to have you not think about the task. I’ve found that they automatically do more for you, and frankly, a lot of the time I don’t want it to do more for me. Ask me a question rather than burning a bunch of tokens to answer something I already know of the top of my head.


The agents also overload you with walls of text, always including lots of less relevant information. It's like they want you to give up and let them drive.


Well yeah it conditions you to turn towards it anytime you hit a roadblock.

It is in a precarious state right now where it is too good not to leverage but will bite you if you get sloppy.

I still write things by hand sometimes because it is fun, but it does make you feel stupid when you spend 2 hours fixing something a 2 min prompt could have fixed.


> feel stupid when you spend 2 hours fixing something a 2 min prompt could have fixed.

or when it handles like 5 edge cases by default that I didn't even think of. That's scary because then I start thinking about all my other code.


I suppose if the number of nameable things is countable (because humans can only enumerate, and it is humans who name), then it trivially follows that some real numbers are unnameable. Which proves the existence of such entities.

This reminds me of a YouTube video I watched this week titled "A counting argument for why mind comes before matter": https://youtu.be/AtduNjJV-6E?is=nBZ9ztZsyeoVhCj1

The argument is something like the set of possible thoughts about physical objects is larger than the physical objects themselves. It feels similar in flavor to the idea of unameable objects.

There's something special about a name. The name of the God of the Bible is special. Christians are to call upon _the name_ of the Lord. We pray, hallowed by _thy name_. It is somehow denotes the summary essence of the thing being named, even if it doesn't give specific details of its characteristics.


The Beauty of Bézier Curves

https://youtu.be/aVwxzDHniEw?si=tPPRId1y5L7U2_5L

Name_I = a*lambda + b (1-lambda)

lamda is a real number.


Getting lost when you have time and a full tank of gas is fun.

Getting lost when you need to be someone on time is awful.

We can love the former and hate the latter.


I don't think serious reader is a cringe term. Reading is a skill like any other and we use terms like "serious golfer" or "serious painter". The flip side of serious is causal. It's okay to structure your life so that reading is a big part of it.


I've noticed there is extremely common, profound insecurity among a substantial portion of online commenters around the concept of reading. People will come out of the woodwork whenever anyone claims to read more deeply than YAF or Sci-Fi and declaim them as pretentious / a loser / cringe. Some people just like reading frequently or reading hard books, and that's okay!


I need something like this for when my AC unit, which can only be right next to the TV, cycles on for a bit. It's sort of the inverse problem. When total noise gets louder I need the TV also to get louder.


Very nice! I solved them all in the backyard on a pleasant Sunday afternoon.


How can an animal even have a neck that long? Was it clear from the fossils that it is this long because I am skeptical.


This video [0] tries to answer the question of how we know what we know for a different species but I imagine the methods are similar.

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vea06e6x_E


relevant xkcd: https://xkcd.com/3185/


No, there's no way to tell—the paleontologists probably just took a bunch of bones from the site and threw them together in a way that looked cool. /s


Now that is an idea for a The Far Side cartoon


Life imitates art imitating life: The story [1] of the Brontosaurus is an interesting one...

[1] https://obscuredinosaurfacts.com/blog/post/2019/08/31/bronto...


It probably had a snake in it's belly, and they thought it was it's neck


This is where I got the link from.


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