> Question: A fair die rolling a 6 twice in a row is more likely than rolling 1-2-3-4-5-6 in sequence

Two 6s in a row is 1/36 chance (1/6)^2

1-2-3-4-5-6 is a 1/46656 chance (1/6)^6

Website is claiming they are the same probability:

> Same probability: 1/46,656 — Both outcomes have exactly the same probability: (1/6)^6 = 1/46,656. This illustrates the representativeness heuristic — random-looking sequences feel more probable than ordered ones.

Website's "answer" is wrong: was the question supposed to be rolling a 6 six times in a row?

Yeah, most likely it was try to identify a bias of human perception, that 1,2,3,4,5,6 would be more probably than 6x6.

A better way to illustrate this bias is with coin flips. People will tell you that odds of 6 heads is more rare than the odds 3 tails then 3 heads. The difficulty is understanding whether they mean "in order" or "as a group".

If it's in order, the odds are the same. Every order of H/T has the same probability, but humans will see "all heads" and think that's more rare. But the important bit is whether there's a clear understanding ordering.

That's definitely better framing for this question. Much cleaner way to illustrate that point!

You're right, that's a mistake in how I phrased the question. It should say "six times in a row" not "twice in a row". Fixing it now! Thanks for pointing that out!

If anyone is interested in why we are bad at estimating, please check out the amazing book Thinking, Fast and Slow: Daniel Kahneman.

Great recommendation. That was one of the biggest influences for starting to write my decisions down and then building this.

came with the same complaint. the website then had the nerve to tell me i am overconfident.

Fair point! Bad question on my end. The overconfidence was based on all 10 questions though, not just that one!

Its actually not "pretty clear"—about 25-30% of people are hyper responders who are impacted by dietary cholesterol.

You wouldn’t happen to know the specific genetic markers for this, it’s the only thing I’d like to know about myself so I could eat eggs guilt free. A cursory search keeps giving me not the results I want to see.

I mean these analogies could be applied to AI image gen too. Open up an image gen tool and press generate. Do you get a great image? No, because you didn’t even enter a prompt.

Cruise has been operating in Phoenix for many years now.

I love and share this view—whenever a website uses dark patterns like this to try and get me to do something I just close the website and thank them for helping me reduce my screen time!

Best way to block people on Twitter after this: delete Twitter.

That's a wide, wide net.

> HN discussion did not particlarly have "reasonable skepticism".

That’s definitely not true despite your attempts to gaslight us.

> If that claim breaks down whenever the driving conditions are anything other than perfect, then self driving cars lose their only supposed benefit

False dilemma: value from self driving cars is a sliding scale, not all or nothing.

> The biggest beneficiary of Webvan’s failure was Amazon.com. Not only did the company learn from the mistakes made by Webvan, but it also hired former Webvan executives to launch its own grocery delivery service: Amazon Fresh. Further, in 2012, Amazon bought KIVA Systems, a company that developed the robotic technology initially used in Webvan distribution facilities, for $775 million. Amazon even owns the domain webvan.com.

Never heard of this company before but found this very interesting. Good read.