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From memory, they raised a huge round just before chat gpt went viral. Not sure if they would have been able to do so well if they were raising now. Very much doubt it.


I dont think so but compliance seems to be getting hot. Ryan Hoover listed "comply or die" as a hot space in his thesis recently.


No, we all are. Getting super tired by anything in the space


Its tricky because by definition the more use-case specific the data the harder to obtain at scale, with some exceptions.


Definitely a hype cycle at the moment. I am old enough that this is my second ;)


Second hype cycle or second AI hype cycle? If the latter when was the first?


1955 with the advent of the field with some very hopeful mathematicians, but the research never produced anything.

1980 after the foundations of neural networks, but it was too computationally intensive to be useful

2009 with Watson

https://www.hiig.de/en/a-brief-history-of-ai-ai-in-the-hype-...


Could this time be different? The tools are now in the hands of the "masses", not behind closed doors or in lofty ivory towers. People can run this stuff on their laptops etc


Every time someone says “this time it’s different” (e.g. 1998 internet bubble, 2007 housing bubble, 2020 crypto bubble, etc) time proves that this time was not really that different.


Well, of those 3 the 1998 internet bubble actually was different and modern society actually was fundamentally changed by the technology in question, so idk if that's the best counterargument. The other two, sure yeah those amounted to essentially nothing. But there have been plenty of bubbles where the concept underlying the bubble actually did have large societal impacts even if the investors all lost money, like tulipmania with futures contracts and railway mania with trains


But the internet did change things? Even crypto is debatable. BTC still exists and still has pretty high value, just not as high as at its peak.

TBH, I'm not sure how to quantify housing bubbles either. I'd bet most of the country has much higher home prices now than in 2007. I bet they were higher than 2007 in most places and most years between then and now too.


> (e.g. 1998 internet bubble, 2007 housing bubble, 2020 crypto bubble, etc)

That's some extreme cherry picking.

During that time period, the internet and smartphones alone have completely changed society (for better and worse) in the span of only three decades, despite the former going causing a minor economic crash in its infancy.

Almost everything is different except human nature. The scammers are innovating just like everyone else.


When someone says a technology completely changed society, I think of the hypothetical singularity that Kurzweil and company predict, where it's basically impossible for us to predict what the future looks like after. But when you look back at the world before the rise of the web and then smartphones, it's just taking preexisting technologies and making them available in more mobile formats. TV, radio, satellite and computers existed before then (1968 mother of all demos had word processing, hypertext, networking, online video). And some people did more or less foresee what we've done online since.

We still burn fossil fuels to a large extent, still drive but not fly cars, still live on Earth not in space, still die of the same causes, etc.

I watch a long cargo train that looks like it's form the 80s go by and wonder how much the internet changed cargo hauling. I'm sure with the logistics the internet made things a lot more efficient, but the actual hauling is not much different. It's not like we teleport things around now. You can order online instead of out of a catalog, but brick stores remain. You can read digital books, but still plenty of printed materials, bookstores, libraries.


> the internet and smartphones alone have completely changed society

I honestly think this overstates the case pretty severely. They have certainly caused societal change, but from what I can see, society as a whole is not actually all that different from what it was before all of that.


Could yes? Will it be? I can tell you when you don't need the answer anymore, i.e. in a few years.

It's the very nature of the hype cycle that it is very hard to distinguish from a real thing.


There was also a voice recognition thing in the 90s, the whole self-driving car/computer vision thing early to mid last decade, and a _very_ short-lived period when everyone was a chatbot startup in 2016 (I think Microsoft Tay just poured so much cold water over this that it died almost immediately).


I don’t remember much happening with NNs in 1980. There was a lot of hype in 1992-1998 though.


Spot on, 2009 with Watson was my first. Oh, the memories...It was nowhere near as nuts as this one, at least in my head.


Not the OP, but I've been through a few AI hype cycles and know of earlier ones, depending on what you count: ML more generally over the last half decade or so¹, the excitement around Watson (and Deep Blue before it), the second big bump in neural network interest in the mid/late 80s², there have been a couple of cycles regarding expert-system-like methods over the decades, etc.

--

[1] though that has produced more useful output than some of the previous hype cycles, as I think will the current one as it seemingly already is doing

[2] I was barely born for the start of the “AI winter” following the first such hype cycle


Wikipedia has a summary of some of the earlier history here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter


I can remember hyped up news after Watson; personally I was hyped up after Creatures (though in my defence I was a teenager and hadn't really encountered non-fictional AI before); before those there was famously the AI winter, following hype that turned out to be unreasonable.


Machine learning became quite the buzzword in 2016(?)


I definitely remember it being the "hot thing" in the ad tech space


Fourth here, if you count dot com, early robotics cum self driving cars, and web 3. Each had their impact, winners and vast array of losers.


Research / talent is how Mistral was able to justify its valuation at 3 weeks old. Pre product, pre anything.


Yes, totally. Not something anyone reading this is going to replicate!


Interestingly enough I think there is lack of talent on the investment side of things too. Very few investors have the right skillsets in their teams to be able to do deep technical due diligence required for true AI solutions.


> Not something anyone reading this is going to replicate!

They were L7/L6 ML researchers/eng at FAANG, I'd bet there are quite a few people like that lurking here.


I think there's rather more to it than that. Two of these guys are on the Llama paper; the hype and momentum from that is surely responsible for a huge chunk of their valuation. If you take the big LLM-relevant papers, most of the folks with this kind of profile are already off doing some kind of startup.

The Mistral folks have impeccable timing, but are leaving FAANG somewhat late compared to their peers.


Definitely. Just to be clear, my comment wasn't to diminish the Mistral folks, they are certainly a very impressive group, but rather to contest your implication about the audience here.


We focus on "selling" the market size, customer problem-solution fit and not so much the AI part. AI is just the means to an end, a better way to solve the problem that we are solving. I saw some interesting stats the other day that the majority of investments in AI focus on infrastructure (databases etc) and foundational models.


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