Because bots and trillion dollar ipos and even bigger stakes. People need to better appreciate the level of manipulation going on. Social media has an outsized impact. Bots and even people are getting paid to post and upvote/downvote narratives.

> people are getting paid to post and upvote/downvote narratives

This problem will be solved shortly with better AI (if it hasn't essentially been solved already).

No more humans in the loop, much lower costs for social media manipulation. Welcome to the future!

Anthropic's reply? A model you can't use.

Mythos is most definitely not in response to this announcement.

Dario is big on beating china, and no doubt he believes cyber security is how to do that. You can tell, but anthropic is sht at everything else. Nobody uses it for real research.

Anthropic needs money like the 112B OpenAI got. They could be hyping and this is good hype. Who knows how benchmaxxed they are.

If they provide access to 3rd party benchmarking (not just one) than maybe I'll believe it. Until then...

You don't need to believe it. The real story will be if companies allowed to use it, stick with it.

Yeah, need some good RE benchmarks for the LLMs. :)

RE is very interesting problem. A lot more that SWE can be RE'd. I've found the LLMs are reluctant to assist, though you can workaround.

What is RE in this context?

Reverse engineering

Yeah, trying to beat the market on actually predicting will get you pretty lame returns. Probably do better in non zero sum games like the stock market. At least there you get the benefit of the market always going up eventually.

No, the best way to win on Polymarket is purely by insider trading. Which is why it's a useful thing to watch. Insider news..

That said, the definition of 'insider trading' is always tricky. At what point does it become insider? Some things people call insider others just call clever detective work.

It's not useful to watch, almost by definition. If you're an insider obviously you want to sit on the information as long as possible and make a big bet just before it will be revealed. For example: the account in TFA whose bet was 71 minutes before the first news article about the attacks.

So how useful is it really to see a big bet and know that probably the thing in question will happen in the next hour?

The only kind of use case I can see for these markets is what another commenter mentioned, as a kind of strange insurance by betting against what you hope will happen. But even then, the finicky rules and untrustworthiness of the Polymarket admins make them much less reliable than a traditional insurance policy...

> Yeah, trying to beat the market on actually predicting will get you pretty lame returns

That maybe true in a normal world, but we left normalcy in this world a couple of administrations ago. I absolutely would not put it past a member of this admin to be keeping an eye on things like this to suggest it would be better to start the attack on specific day just to pad the coffers. Any other admin, and I'd say that would be an insane line of thought, but it is this admin.

"People don't play in corrupt markets for very long." ... ahhh, it's not a bug with Polymarket - it's a feature.

Someone has to take the other side of the bet. As these stories become more common and well-known, it'll degrade the market

All I've ever seen is it encouraging people and not discouraging them. The thrill of the easy money, right?

Forget it jake, it's Polymarket.

This stuff is turning me off of prediction markets and I'm actually a huge fan of them conceptually (and have bet on them myself for quite a while).

As the billboard glow inviting insiders to trade gets brighter, the markets get less useful, less fun, less interesting, and obviously less rewarding.

I'd say it's more a kowtow to his voters and democracy. Whatever you think of him, he was democratically elected. Do remember to show up this November, though, and remind all your friends..

> kowtow to his voters and democracy.

The president can not unilaterally rename the Department of Defense to the Department of War without approval from congress. Just declaring it so is not democracy. Those that call it the Department of War are enablers.

trump literally said he wants venez to return the oil it 'stole' when it nationalized.

There is a significant risk of uncertainty in all of this, the most damaging aspect really. If AI improves, and it is threatening to, then growth in SaaS may decline to a point where investing in it needs to be reconsidered.

The problem is, nobody knows how much and how fast AI will improve or how much it will cost if it does.

That uncertainty alone is very problematic and I think is being underestimated in terms of its impact on everything it can potentially touch.

For now though, I've seen a wall form in benchmarks like swe-rebench and swebench pro. Greenfield is expanding, but maintenance is still a problem.

I think AI needs to get much better at maintenance before serious companies can choose build over buy for anything but the most trivial apps.