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We might want to prepare ourselves for the fact that the Strait of Hormuz might not be reopened to US traffic any time in the near future.

I really wish I could root my series x -- especially in this age of RAM and GPU scarcity.

Something a lot of people don't understand about operating within a corrupt system -- the person paying the bribe is usually the one being controlled.

Yes, those who pay receive special benefits, but it is against the background threat of reprisal if you cease paying.

Hey, that's a nice software company, it would be a shame if something happened to it. By the way, my son is raising money for his new crypto venture. You should think about investing.


We have no idea what starship has cost. It's a private company.


I don't think "no idea" is fair. We don't have exact numbers, but there are various statements out there that give clues. Even the highest estimates I can put together put Starship far cheaper than SLS.


You have to consider that Starship has not reached anywhere near the operational goals for Artemis, and there is no realistic time line for when it might. So we really do have no idea how much it might cost by the time it reaches the milestone SLS has already cleared (successful flight in lunar orbit, with a full payload that it successfully deploys).


You also have to consider that SpaceX has the fastest, most reliable, most cost efficient launch service in operation ever, and are using the same methodology to develop the most advanced launch system ever attempted.


We also have to consider the other major Musk lead company Telsa had the best selling car in the world and string of successful cars leading up to that before completely shitting the bed on the Cyber Truck.

I want Starship to be a success and reduce the cost to orbit and beyond, but past success does not in any way guarantee future success.


You must compare the AI chip in the Tesla vehicle to the chip in F-35 "Fat Amy" on value for money thermal design.


Life has no guarantees. Past success is the best predictor of future success regardless.


True but we know for a fact that it doesn't consume 4-5 billion $ a year for the last 15 years like SLS/Orion because SpaceX couldn't afford that. If you actually do some basic math and look at SpaceX revenue and so on, you can make some pretty decent guesses. And SpaceX is analyzed in detail by lots of people.


Even if a Starship needs to be scrapped after landing, the Super Heavy booster works, returns nominally to the launch site, and can be reused. This alone should make the whole thing cheaper than SLS.


Only if the SuperHeavy booster can achieve the same performance as the SLS (payload to orbit), with similar levels of operational complexity.

The SLS has already proven it can fly to lunar orbit and back on one single launch. In contrast, even if everything goes according to plan, Starship requires at least a dozen re-fueling flights while it hangs in orbit around the Earth to be able to then fly to the Moon.

Will one Starship launch, when it eventually works, be cheaper than SLS? Very likely. Will 12+ Starship launches + the time in orbit be cheaper than a single SLS launch? Much, much less likely.


Actually, we already know that with booster reuse disposing of 12 tanker starships will cost less than an SLS launch and actually be able to get to the moon, which SLS with Orion can’t actually do.


We don't, because Starship has not had even one successful flight with any appreciable payload. It's absolutely possible that the booster will need to be completely redesigned, and become much more expensive, in order to achieve the mission goals.

It's also worth noting that a captured booster has only once been successfully flown again - and certainly not in the kind of tight time line that the in-orbit refueling operation requires (first flight was March 6, second flight was October 13 - and no more flights are planned anyway). There is currently little proof that boosters can be "rapidly and fully reused" as needed to match any of the cost promises.


Then it should be equally worth nothing that SLS has only launched once.


That's not what happened here. They literally got forced into it by the Pentagon. https://www.axios.com/2026/02/24/anthropic-pentagon-claude-h...


Most markets don't have three purchasers trying to corner the entire supply of one product.


I guess we’d call this oligopsony?

The monopsony (single buyer of a good) equivalent of an oligopoly?

Phew, it is a word, but not a highly studied one!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oligopsony


Economic history is full of examples of demand shocks. This is not some unique situation that has never occurred before.

This is actually a clean commodity price spike because it’s specifically not for market manipulation or financial engineering. It’s because demand for this product really did explode overnight.


> This is actually a clean commodity price spike because it’s specifically not for market manipulation or financial engineering. It’s because demand for this product really did explode overnight.

Based on how the same 3 billion has been circiling between Anthropic, OpenAI, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and a few other companies... I really doubt that this is the case, to be honest.


I think it's reasonable to distinguish which side drove this. RAM prices are going up but it's not engineered primarily by RAM manufacturers. They are naturally jumping on the bandwagon and responding, but they aren't the drivers. Of course, how they respond matters. They could make other choices. Over time we'll see how this goes because AI could cool and then RAM manufacturers end up in a spot where they choose to manipulate prices to keep them higher.


You're being exceedingly pedantic over the use of the colloquialism "DRAM tax" but then you allow "demand shocks". So yeah, everyone's shocked.

Weird hill..


Demand shock is not a colloquialism. It’s an real economic term that describes the situation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demand_shock

Tax is also an economic term, which is not what’s happening. Calling it a “tax on consumers” doesn’t make sense because any data centers buying RAM right now are also buying from the same global market.

If commenters just want to be outraged and throw words around then use whatever words you want, I suppose.


It is manipulation when wafers are purchased in order to not process further a la OpenAI.


By 3 buyers who have no known plan to finance the purchase orders they have made.

Economic history is also full of examples of bubble bursts.


Not sure why the NSA would pay for a Japanese water system.


To keep up the façade.


Then they should have funded some building preservation programmes instead.


Canada has had the INTERAC payment system for over 20 years now. It is privately run by Canadian banks, universally accepted and runs on a cost recovery basis.


So there are 3 kinds of "debit cards" in Canada:

1. Debit Mastercard/VISA. These are Debit Cards that use the Mastercard/VISA communication system to process transactions. While they are not "Credit" cards because you are using cash in an account that is your money, they rely upon the VISA/Mastercard system and merchants will be charged the Mastercard/VISA fee like a Credit Card.

2. Interac Debit Card. Interac was the first company to offer a debit card type system in Canada, and they are the traditional bank card. These cards use the Interac system (so does eTransfer) and Merchants are charged by Interac for using the system. Its typically less than Mastercard/VISA, which is why you see these "Debit Card only" signs.

3. Mastercard/VISA and Interac hybrid cards. These are newer and combine both Mastercard/VISA and Interac cards in one. The merchant can choose how they want to proceed.

Most of these "Debit" only signs are really saying "Interac only", but because for 30 years Interac was the only provider of Debit cards in Canada, it became the common vernacular to say "Debit" when you mean "Interac".


Don't give them any ideas


Tried it out last night. It combines dozens of tools together in a way that is likely to be a favourite platform for astroturfers/scammers.

The ease of use is a big step toward the Dead Internet.

That said, the software is truly impressive to this layperson.


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