If these were $50M and not $50B your analysis would've been correct. But with such enormous amounts, it's not about money anymore, it's about power. And Facebook has the power to understand and influence what ppl think.
Are you suggesting that people buy Wal-Mart and Microsoft stock not because they expect to make money, but because Wal-Mart and Microsoft use their power to induce them to do so? Perhaps Microsoft will make your PC crash if you don't own enough of their stock? I am skeptical of your theory.
I'm suggesting GS would buy FB stock even if FB was loosing billions every year and there was no hope for future profits. In the same way GS and company are spending who knows how much on political campaigns and lobbing.
If you look at the market prices of newspapers, radios, TV stations, you'll see that they depend little on their earnings. The buyer pays for influence on the public opinion.
How much do you think will FB support be worth to GS during the next bailout? In understanding what are the common fears, arguments for and against. Even now GS manages many deals, parts of the society don't like - outsourcing, green house options trade, arab and chinese investors, etc.
I don't know whether your first statement is true, but I'm skeptical. Certainly there are some cases where newspapers continue to operate at a loss over many years, but in those cases we hear rumblings about hostile takeovers.
Regardless, I don't think GS comes close to getting that kind of editorial control or information access with this deal.
Although you do suggest the interesting point that Facebook private messages and even public postings could be a very valuable source of insider trading information.
From the article: "Browser Plus has gotten a few thousand downloads so far, he said." Price was 99c. Not sure how much whichever marketplace it was in charges.
Assume 2000 x 70c = $1,400
Not bad for a week/weekends work (honeymoon apparently, go figure?!? :D )
But a bit ... lacking ... when considered as a #1 hit. On the other hand, maybe it hasn't been out there too long. You could say okay the time he and his beta tester put in was worth maybe $20/hour, but that ignores how an app can be a revenue stream that keeps on generating income.
If he 'only' made $1000 per year from that app (as is) every year for the rest of his life that'd be a pretty good ROI for a weeks work.
So don't get too hung up on my estimate, the advantage of an entrepreneur compared to a work for hire salaryman is to keep getting paid long after the work is done.
This analysis is pretty accurate. That Techflash article was after the first week or so - it gives you a sense of how many app downloads I got per day back then. Another thing to factor in was that this was in the first 2 weeks of WP7 launching.
Unfortunately, the popularity took a dive after the first few weeks so my run rate is much lower now. Also, a big part of my app sales was driven by press which you only get when you do new versions, etc. My wife and I working together on a soon-to-be-launched app also meant that I haven't really gotten back to shipping new updates, etc.
Yeah, right. Enterprises like to check ppl history before hiring them. One can have mad skills and still be unable to find a job or business opportunity.
>> Your post, on the other hand, is reductive and boring.
So mean and bad mannered ;)
This guy, Parag Khanna, have been shown in school and Hollywood movies an extremely simplified model of the 19th and 20th centuries world. A model where all events are explained through the state politics and big business is ignored. Based on that stupid assumption he is saying that now the world is different, because there are powers outside the states.
