> I expect it to cost somewhere in the neighborhood of an experienced dev because that’s the alternative.
That's only true if a single company owns the frontier, otherwise the alternative is "a rival frontier model" and the cost will be the marginal price of the compute + amortized training costs.
>For example, “You can’t beat the market, dollar-cost average into index funds!” is the kind of viral story that will earn you nods of approval from millennials and upvotes on Reddit.
>Pattern matching, on the other hand, can drive you to make moves like an advanced chess engine. Moves that others find alien and incomprehensible.
Sure. Index funds is a viral story which has a lot of rigorous data behind it. As for the advanced chess engine of intuition... ever heard of Fooled By Randomness?
Author here: I do passive invest, with maybe 1/3rd of my portfolio. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. As long as people keep piling in money index funds will keep getting pushed upwards in price.
Passive investing works great when it's a minority of the market.
But it obviously does not work, as the majority of inflows become passive.
There is no case in history where: "Keep buying X, regardless of the price of X" has ever turned out well. We come up with new stories every generation around why it can work. Price matters, and as soon as you introduce a mass of buyers who don't care about price, it distorts markets massively.
Michael Burry has a pretty good article that shows how $1 invested into an S&P500 fund gets amplified into $5 of price pressure through perverse feedback loops.
Also: Active managers have no interest in pricing the market for you. They want to make money. Why would they bother pricing the market when they can siphon money off of passives instead? Passives are like a rock-paper-scissors player that always plays Rock. It becomes incredibly easy for funds to frontrun and take advantage of them, and one day they will be left with the bag.
For now, I am in passive. But I will be the first one out when the narrative starts to crack.
Sorry, there is no silver bullet in investing. We keep inventing them and saying "this time it's different". It's not true.
It’s weird - my peers always say I’m stupid for not investing my idle money in the various (stock) markets and the gains they show seem to confirm that - but ITT the sentiment seems to be quite different.
To be honest i cant be bothered is the real reason I don’t play but maybe it’s the winning move?
"You can't beat the market -- dollar cost average into index funds" is the sentiment I get from this thread, and also the one I agree with. Actively trying to pick stocks, unless you have extreme interest, ability, and resources to do so is hard. Betting on, basically, "the whole stock market" is a pretty good idea, or at least better than letting inflation take daily bites out of your cash. This is one where I think the received, mainstream wisdom (diversify, invest-don't-trade, investing should be boring, etc) is basically right.
So it seems worth vibecoding a survival analysis for bugs introduced. But not quite a survival analysis because we don't even know the bugs exist until the event of their discovery.... Is there a publicly available dataset for this, with a URL?
The UK has the opposite problem. You don't get overtreated, but you may get undertreated - sometimes it is impossible to find a NHS dentist at all. Indeed, I went private because I literally couldn't find one after my old one sacked me. The private dentists probably have the same problems as described here. But I luckily found a small, nice, ethical one who was recommended by people in town I trust. Literal word-of-mouth still beats any algorithm I know for this kind of question.
Honestly, I think it can happen anywhere - I've had several fillings for very marginal cavities from an NHS dentist that probably weren't necessary.
Part of the reason is that fashions change... that dentist was trained at a time when minor cavities were always treated as soon as they were noticed, but the more recent recommendation is to monitor and treat only if it gets worse.
If you chose at random and it guessed at random, it would get 32% about 1% of the time. So worse than chance, but not surprising that it happened to at least one HN reader?
Trump has certainly taken corruption and malfeasance to new levels of blatancy, but Obama's AG Eric Holder declining to prosecute the banks his firm used to represent, escaping punishment for Contempt of Congress because his own DoJ declined to prosecute him (on a different matter), and then returning to that same firm is part of how we got to where we are now.
Unions, like other monopolies, are good for their members and bad for everyone else. Whether unionizing is unselfish or not is debatable, but it makes the world worse.
Unions make the world worse? What nonsense is this?
Labor unions gave us the 8 hour workday, overtime pay, child labor bans, workplace safety standards, and union shops generally earn 10-15% more than their non-union counterparts.
> Sorry, in which EU countries does participation in a peaceful protest get you arrested?
In all of them? Sorry, but are you really trying to deny that there are multi-tiered justice system for illegal aliens all across EU depending on their skin color, religion beliefs, or possession of Russian passport?
That's only true if a single company owns the frontier, otherwise the alternative is "a rival frontier model" and the cost will be the marginal price of the compute + amortized training costs.
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