By itself it is already hard to think these things through, and it is similarly hard to take the conclusions seriously if you do. On top of that there are an unusually high number of highly distributed, cross-domain, and unusually large incentives at play here, that are unusually uniform in direction, making for an extraordinary headwind to sail against.
> But maybe that’s a sign that HN doesn’t buy these scenarios.
There is no HN consensus opinion.
I am of the opinion that this is going to cause massive economic and political upheaval in the next year or two on scales we are nowhere near ready to deal with and probably end quite badly (at least in the US) because we exist in a state of perpetual political near-paralysis.
I'm also of the opinion that even if I'm right there's nothing I can really do about it but watch it unfold.
My concerns aren't really the same as those of the EA crowd. I'm not worried about AI turning us into paperclips or escaping containment or whatever, I'm worried about much more mundane concerns like what does it look like when large amounts of people are no longer economically valuable and wealth inequality continues to skyrocket and this all happens way faster than we can manage any sort of controlled transition.
But that's just my concern... a lot of other people here are convinced this is all just normal technology and won't have any large societal impacts beyond maybe accelerating us into a brighter future.
I would like for them to be right and for me to be wrong.
The amount of public land sort of follows when states were admitted to the union. At a certain point we saw what happened to the East and decided not to let it keep happening. Thanks in large part to early conservationists like Gifford Pinochet and Teddy Roosevelt
The contaminated soil passes the prions. There is not too many things that can do much other that heat and some acids. Heat is viable by it requires massive amount of energy. Maybe small area or few miles as parameter combined with fences.
Unfortunately we still haven’t beat that disease. despite all the focus on it sadly up to half the population still suffers from viewing the world with MG.
If he "meant no disrespect" then he doesn't see that this statement of his is deeply sexist and disrespectful:
> Dentist comes in. She’s an attractive blond that paid for about 50% of her looks.
The automatic assumption that a blonde woman is hired or is successful because of looks is grossly and deeply sexist. If he thinks that isn't disrespectful then that's a big problem.
> > Dentist comes in. She’s an attractive blond that paid for about 50% of her looks.
> The automatic assumption that a blonde woman is hired or is successful because of looks is grossly and deeply sexist. If he thinks that isn't disrespectful then that's a big problem.
How can you read that and think that it means she was hired for her looks?
But she wasn’t hired. Clearly she is the dentist that owns the practice. Clearly she is selling herself as a poster child of what her patients could look like if they pay for her services. Also, you’re assuming he’s assuming. Sounds like he’s just stating a fact. If you dont get that then obviously you’re not a golfer.
You're right, I've edited for clarity, I don't think it takes away from my point. If it were an isolated example in an otherwise fine text then I wouldn't have commented on it, but as others recognised, this piece is littered with sexism.
The kalahari bushman had a trick to stay cool on a hot day: dig a sand pit in the shade, put in the fibrous bits of inedible plant material, pee on them, lay down in the pit and cover up with sand and wait until the evening cooled things down.
And the story this was inspired by in particular is called “Cookies”:
Toad makes very good cookies and he and frog can’t stop eating them. “We need willpower!” they say.
So they put the cookies in a box. But they realize they can just open it, so they tie it with string and put it on a high shelf. But they realize they can get it down so Frog goes outside and scatters the cookie and birds eat them all.
There says Frog “now we have lots and lots of willpower!”
Toad is upset. “You can keep your willpower Frog. I am going home to bake a cake!”
I just recently saw that story in a book. What was it... Oh yes, it was in "Situated" by Angela Duckworth (of "Grit" fame). That's the gist of the book. Frog and Toad changed their situation rather than the downstream thoughts or behaviors (through willpower). Make it harder to do (friction up) what you don't want to do and make it easier (friction down) to do what you want to do.
You should pick up a collection of Frog and Toad stories. I read them because I have little kids, but they are genuinely great little with stories. The stories are simple, but it is amazing how well developed the two characters are, and how they play off each other in different situations.
Arnold Lobel is also just very funny. Grasshopper on the Road made me laugh out loud the first time I read it my kids. The opening story about beetles that love morning ("The Club") feels so timely.
Life is a bit easier when we see the conditions that lead to the undesirable outcomes, and so much harder when we aspire to perfect ourselves and use moral strength to over come our weaknesses. Like my mom always said of parenting, "Make it easy to be good." - works for self-management as well, and is much more relaxing and happy than constantly trying to grind or improve.
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