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Occam would disagree.

The most Occam-safe explanation is not insider trading but actually hard work in analytics to rapidly surface intelligence from X and other alternative data sources.

occam doesn't work in financial markets.

because if it did you would print money by following occam.


But it does work in conspiracy theories which is what we have here.

I also live about half an hour from Congaree. I wish it was a state park…it’d be on everyone’s list of “coolest state parks.”

It doesn’t have the same wow factor as other national parks, but it’s a special place for sure.

See you at the fireflies!


Microsoft teams: not as bad as people say, except for this situation.

I have accidentally sent so many messages trying to get to a new line.


It's because enter does different things at different times in the exact same text box.

Write a code snippet/block text. Does [enter] insert a newline, exit the block, or send the message?

What about in a bulleted or numbered list?

And my 2 biggest pet peeves with MS Teams:

1. trying to edit the first letter in a `preformat block`. It's not possible. It will either exit the block or go to the second letter.

2. Consistency with bold/italics. Bold a selection of text. Then backspace once. Are you going to write bold or normal? What does ctrl-B do? Anytime you backspace into a bolded section, it will convert your editing back to bold, and you cannot disable bold.


I have a very small Kevin Bacon number to the "guy who runs Teams". The message from them is "please use the built-in feedback tool to tell us about these things".

I also sent a LOT of Slack messages prematurely for the same reason. Used to it now, though. The more an interface emphasises the single-line nature of a text input, the better. Multi-line should never submit on enter, single-line always should.

Same, but it's configurable in slack so now I have it configured the Enter inserts a line break and Cmd+Enter submits the message

while I haven't changed it, it seems that you configure that behavior in the current version of Teams (Settings > Chats and channels)

They buried the lede…

Participation in sports betting appears to make people about 2x more likely to be delinquent on their loans.

Whether you think that’s “bad enough” is another question, but the article doesn’t make it very clear what the effect size is.


I wonder if this is just selection bias

People who are bad with money are bad with money


Well, at least you'd want to be careful about correlations vs causation, yes.


I mean…keep reading.

For the affected population, it’s around 10 percentage points—or double.

So people who sports bet are twice as likely to be delinquent as those who don’t. I’ll give you that the effect is smaller than I expected.

Here’s the thing though…it’s not like that trend is slowing down. The finalization of prediction markets and continued normalization of betting as a pro-social behavior is currently headed to the moon…so we should ask if it’s causing major side effects.

Smoking makes someone 25x more likely to develop lung cancer. Right now it looks like sports betting makes you 2x more likely to be delinquent on your car loan. At what incidence does that become anti-social enough to try to curb?


Sports betting is regulated, prediction markets aren't though. That's a pretty stark difference


In the US, the CFTC regulated prediction markets. They are more regulated (at a federal level) than gambling.


There's plenty of regulation around them. But sure, you can ask for even more, or different regulation.


I hear the slot machine thing a lot but I don’t get it.

I use Claude Code every day for coding because it makes me way more productive. But I don’t resonate with the slot machine effect. Can you expand on what mechanism you see that give it a slot machine effect? Is it for all users or just a subset?


For people who want to ask a model for an app, or a website, or something at a level of “hey you make apps right, I have had this idea for years…” the experience is akin to a slot machine — sometimes they get what they imagined their description would create and it works, and sometimes they get a hollow chocolate approximation.


I think it is just a strawman extrapolation of the nondeterministic nature of LLMs.


I think Warhol’s quote is nostalgic but incomplete.

I’m priced out of the best cars, best houses, best home theater systems, best schools. Even someone making $300k/year can’t afford all of the best of everything.

Sure, the iPhone has been “the best” possible phone which was also used by nearly everyone, but I think that’s an anomaly even in the short run.

Right now I’m paying $200/mo for Claude code to do an amount of work I would’ve had to pay $10,000/mo for. Of course I’m expecting those numbers to get closer to each other.

No VC-funded gravy train lasts forever.


It’s a common tactic. Shock an industry with a new product and advertise it as being very affordable. Once you get a solid consumer base with enough organizations that have rebuilt their operations around it, slowly increase the cost and find more ways to produce revenue.


It all depends. Yes, something like that happened with Uber, but computers and consumer electronics have Moore's law working for them, so prices usually go down. (With occasional shortages like we see now with RAM - not for the first time, but it's usually temporary.)

My guess is that AI will be more like consumer electronics than like Uber.


I agree that consumer goods normally get cheaper over time. Software that becomes commercialized, or sees a surge in enterprise demand, tends to go the other way. Splunk, Elasticsearch, and Slack for example.


Why do you expect the price to get closer?

You can get a table from Ikea that costs a fraction of what an artisan makes. They're not the same final product but their functions is the same.


Either AI gets more expensive, or the 10k outsourcing gets cheaper.


It has a real “where the wild things are” feel…which is the art used to decorate my local library.

A lot of people have chosen to take the Hobbit as seriously as its older brother—-including Peter Jackson—-and have missed out on the absurd, beautiful childishness of the whole thing.

The Hobbit does a wonderful job of introducing the ideas and characters of LotR in a way which is accessible for children and I think the art presented here is a valid artistic take on a children’s book about a dragon.


"absurd, beautiful childishness of the whole thing"

There is the bed-jumping scene, so there is childishness in the movies too. (I also hated that scene; I started to root for Sauron when I saw that scene.)



> A lot of people have chosen to take the Hobbit as seriously as its older brother

Do you refer to the LOTR trilogy as The Hobbit's older brother here? I was under the impression that The Hobbit was the first book in this saga?


> I was under the impression that The Hobbit was the first book in this saga?

Yes: But the Hobbit is much shorter and is a much easier read. It also was edited after LOTR was published to fix some minor plot holes.

WRT the movies: Peter Jackson added a lot to the "Hobbit" trilogy that wasn't in the book, such as the whole story arc about Gandalf when he wasn't with the dwarves, or the other wizards. The book isn't the epic that the movie makes it out to be.


Obviously true, but LOTR is also obviously more mature than The Hobbit, which I think was OP's point.


It’s as valid as any art. But as an illustrated book, it’s lacking.

If I had read this version as a kid, I’d be extremely confused as to why Gollum was 20 feet tall and wearing a flower crown. And then I’d be mad and consider it a bad illustration. (I’m aware some people think the original version didn’t specify his size. But the 1937 text states “Deep down here by the dark water lived old Gollum, a small slimy creature.”)

If there’s a character in a book who is known for wearing a red shirt, you might think it’s interesting to subvert expectations and give him a green shirt. But when the picture with the green shirt appears next to text describing a red shirt, it fails as an illustration. Especially in a book meant for children.


Tolkien and Jansson shared one thing: people did translations of their work which they totally hated

So it's sort-of funny that she wound up pissing him off with artwork which didn't fit his mental model, when they both experienced people trying to do the translation and failing to hit the mark.

(I think I read this of both of them, in respective biographies)


"I’m aware some people think the original version didn’t specify his size"

Well, he was a hobbit once, right? So a 10 meters tall Gollum makes less sense than a Gollum that has about the same size as other hobbits, give or take.


But that's only known if you read other material, it's not in The Hobbit.


That's a retcon. There was no indication that he was a hobbit in The Hobbit (and as others have mentioned, in the original there was no physical description at all.)


https://www.theonering.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/The-Ho...

This version says it’s the 1937 edition. It has the pre change story about Gollum offering the ring which Tolkien said is what he changed. But it also says he was a small slimy creature.


Neither the "before" nor "after" here have "small slimy"

https://www.ringgame.net/riddles.html


Yeah it's entirely possible the version that I have that is supposed to be from 1937 was tainted with later versions despite it not containing any of the more well known 1951 changes. That is maybe someone reconstructed it by taking a 1966 copy and undoing the changes, but forgot about the small slimy creature change.

But apparently there were dozens of different versions that actually ended up in print that had different amounts of the changes caused by some printers mixing old plates and new. So it's entirely possible that small slimy appeared in some versions around 1951 but not others and that's what that page is working off of.


"a small slimy creature" was added after this picture was drawn, in the 1966 edition.

Other languages adaptions had larger gollum's also - see some at e.g. https://www.reddit.com/r/lotr/comments/vy7vij/before_the_196...

(It's difficult to find an excellent authoritative link clearly explaining that the change was in the 1966 edition - there is 'The History of The Hobbit' by John D. Rateliff, but I can't find it online)


That’s not correct as far as I can tell. I found a 1937 version complete with the original “Gollum offers to give him the ring” and small slimy creature was there.

https://www.theonering.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/The-Ho...


> (I’m aware some people think the original version didn’t specify his size. But the 1937 text states “Deep down here by the dark water lived old Gollum, a small slimy creature.”)

This directly contradicts the article. I found the first edition online, and have determined you are mistaken.

http://searcherr.work/The%20Hobbit%201st%20ed%20(1937).pdf

Page 83: "Deep down here by the dark water lived old Gollum. I don't know where he came from, nor who or what he was."

Mind explaining the source of your mistake?


Also (referencing a side comment) the only mention of the size of Gollum's boat in that PDF (and it may not even be his boat - I'm not an expert on the source material, just going off mentions of "boat" near "Gollum") seems to be "little black boat" but that's pretty quickly followed by it fitting 4 people at a time which isn't all that "little", really, and I think the large Gollum in the illustration could fit in a 4 person boat (albeit in a perhaps top-heavy fashion.)


Hats off for going to the Primary Source!


It’s not a primary source is a scan of a 2016 reprint that I can’t find much information on. And I she a version that purports to be the 1937 edition which does have the small slimy creature line.

https://www.theonering.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/The-Ho...

That version has the original “Gollum offers to give him the ring if he wins”.


https://www.theonering.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/The-Ho...

The version you linked is a 2016 reprint, so I’m actually not sure which one is correct.

The version I linked to still has Gollum offering to give Bilbo the ring so it certainly predates the modern version I have. And that is the change Tolkien explicitly states he made.

The version I linked has this "If it asks us, and we doesn't answer, we gives it a present, gollum!" Which I'm positive is only in the 1937 version. From what I can tell there were also minor corrections made before the 1951 changes, so I suppose it's possible that adding small slimy creature was one of those.

There are also reported to be dozens of different versions after 1951 caused by printers mixing and matching old and revised plates. I'm unsure exactly how that 1937 facsimile was recreated, or how the version I linked was created. One or both could have been taken from this mismatched versions.

I think the only way to be sure would be to buy a reprint from before 1951 or to find a scan of one online.


I see. This is a weird situation, then, and I apologize if I was abrasive.

Searching online ("Deep down here by the dark water lived old Gollum. I don't know") there are many hits for the line without "small and slimy creature." I assume it to be part of some legitimate edition, and I find it hard to believe this clarification would have been removed between editions, so with some confidence I conclude the original version did not have "small and slimy creature." Still, I understand your POV and appreciate your patience explaining it.


No worries. I wasn’t offended. Just surprised because I knew I had double checked.

Oh yeah I think it’s likely the very first version didn’t have it. But I’m much less sure about when it could have first popped up. I think it’s highly likely it showed up before the Swedish version. But I’m not very confident. Also it’s possible that the version Jansson was working from didn’t have it, even if a version of it with that text existed at the time.


Why rude?


The comment it's replying to stated that 1937 quote as if they had checked it. That deception seems ruder to me the language in the comment you're talking about. But I do agree the last sentence could've been omitted while getting the core point across (but we're all only human).


https://www.theonering.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/The-Ho...

I did.

The version you posted is a 2016 reprint, I’m unsure which is correct.


Fair enough! (BTW I didn't post any version but your point stands.)


Also worth pointing out that I didn’t find the original correction rude unless there was an earlier version of the comment I didn’t see ;)


Not rude, just direct.


Nope, it’s rude and abrasive


Agree that the post comes across as rude in tone, but it’s never explicitly disparaging. Might just be an overly direct tone (non-native English speaker, or maybe on the spectrum?)


Nah just sounds like people can't handle what they say being questioned as per usual. We should never take offense to being asked to clarify or explain when someone thinks we're wrong.

I'd only be vaguely offended if they had no grounded reason to think that I'm wrong (and they'd be calling me out for the sake of calling me out).

Communicating ideas is a part of tribalism too. Good brain chemicals when the tribe agrees and bad brain chemicals when they disagree.


Yeah, my bad, after re-reading the original post. It was not particularly rude.

Apologies.


Heya, I don't often come back and reply to people but I genuinely have to say I look up to your ability to change your mind, admit you were wrong and come out smiling.

We should all be more like you! <3


> If there’s a character in a book who is known for wearing a red shirt, you might think it’s interesting to subvert expectations and give him a green shirt. But when the picture with the green shirt appears next to text describing a red shirt, it fails as an illustration. Especially in a book meant for children.

Should Aragorn wear pants in the illustrations?


Aragorn isn't in The Hobbit.


TBH, I learned about how to use em dashes from the AI controversy and now I find them really useful.

I just hope my writing carries enough voice and perspective that people respond, even if there's an em dash or two.


What would be better policy, in your opinion?


Having taught in schools for years? Treat companies that make addictive products the same way we treat drugs, alcohol and tobacco. Kids want them, particularly teenagers. We aren't perfect at stopping their access. But we can make a best attempt.

It would be hard, and it would be 'anti-capitalism', but, I think we have done real long term damage to a generation, and I think in 20 years, like Tobacco, it I'll turn out the companies knew how much they were damaging children and covered it up.


It's not anti-capitalism to not spend public money on nonsense that doesn't further the goals of education, no is it anti-capitalism to control the learning environment in schools. What we have is a collective action problem.


> It would be hard, and it would be 'anti-capitalism'

These things are opposites - the former is a downside, the latter an upside.


Faraday cages built into school buildings.


there will be one school shooting and no one would be able to call 911 and then there will be a public outcry.

the big tech companies making these phones and apps will amplify that outcry hard, and the phones will be let back in. the addiction will continue.


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