> Any monopoly with viable economics for profit with no threat of competition yields monopoly profits
"With viable economics" is the point.
My "ludicrous statement" is a back-of-the-envelope test for whether an industry is nonsense. For comparison, consolidating all of the Pets.com competitors in the late 1990s would not have yielded a profitable company.
> Very convenient to leave out Amazon in your back of the envelope test, who’s internal metrics were showing a path toward quasi-monopoly profits
Not in the 1990s. The American e-commerce industry was structurally unprofitable prior to the dot-com crash, an event Amazon (and eBay) responded to by fundamentally changing their businesses. Amazon bet on fulfillment. eBay bet on payments. Both represented a vertical integration that illustrates the point–the original model didn't work.
> There’s a difference between being too early vs being nonsense
When answering the question "do the investments make sense," not really. You're losing your money either way.
The American AI industry appears to have "viable economics for profit" without AGI. That doesn't guarantee anyone will earn them. But it's not a meaningless conclusion. (Though I'd personally frame it as a hypothesis I'm leaning towards.)
Malcolm Harris' Palo Alto explained the failures of many dotcom startups and Amazon's later success in the field (in part) to the fact that dotcom era delivery was done by highly trained, highly compensated, unionized in-company workers, meanwhile Amazon prevents unions, contracts (or contracted, I'm not up to date on this) companies for delivery and has exploitative working conditions with high turnover, the economics are very different and are a big contributor to their success
He’s a glorified portfolio manager (questionable how good he actually is given the results vs Anthropic and how quickly they closed the valuation gap with far less money invested) + expert hype man to raise money for risky projects.
Dario is a lot more focused on enabling people with AI, Sam goes on interviews like he's Wormtongue trying to summon a "god". Then there is the whole "open"ai where he took it closed source for profit, the engineers kicking sama out but he wiggled back in (at the cost of a lot of the founding engineers), the suspicious death of a whistleblower, the crazy investment schemes of billions of dollars that he's hoping taxes will save him from, the immediate curtailing to Pete in the DoD, and a few other things that make him at least a highly questionable fellow.
Dario left OpenAI because of the bad he saw there, and made a superior product (though these things change very rapidly).
> Why is it Altman is facing kill shots and Dario isn’t?
Altman peaked in the zeiteist in 2023; Dario, much less prominently, in 2024 and now '26 [1]. I'd guess around this time next year, Dario will be as hated as Altman is today.
All this stuff is proving to me one thing: we don’t need to get better at producing stuff faster. We need to get better at producing the right stuff. Right stuff meaning getting better at project selection.
I guarantee a firm that is really good at project selection with hand written code will annihilate a firm that is full of agentic engineers. And frankly I hope the outcome is that all those who went all in on agentic coding go out of business because they got beaten by disciplined and visionary leaders who understand this subtle and nuanced point.
Faster faster faster, everything faster except for fixing the climate, sheltering the poor, healing the sick, reducing inequality. Until we are planning to do these things with the same speed and enthusiasm as pushing out more crap for people to buy, the only thing we are moving faster toward is our own doom.
It's not the "faster" which makes investors and PMCs wet their pants with anticipation...it's the ability to swap reliance upon labor which requires a level of labor cooperation (which can be withdrawn) with reliance on raw materials.
For raw materials all you need is a bigger gun, missile and/or aircraft carrier. Labor can go straight to hell and the economy wont freeze up.
It's the same calculus which precipitated a shift from coal (labor reliant, locally sourced) to oil (bigger guns... but much less labor required) in the early 20th century.
Well the irony of that is if labour disappears these vultures don’t live in peace. They end up fighting each other until the victor is left standing lol.
you are missing the picture here.
would you then agree that agentic + selection is better than hand-written + selection? in that case, even if the advantage is project selection, nobody would choose to work in a hand-written way right?
