I don’t think we know whether or not that’s true yet. Imagine a problem which requires a paradigm shift or new novel techniques to solve. There is no proof (yet) that an AI could create one.

Why do you believe human brains are magic? We may need some breakthroughs, but trillions of investment tends to produce those.

And it's becoming less clear over time that a breakthrough will be needed.

It's not magical abilities - humans have proved for millenia that they can find novel solutions to problems - we have no idea how that comes to be though (which could be called magic I guess)

At issue with AI is that it's searching an existing corpus for fragments of solutions generated by humans - that's not necessarily novel, and we've not yet worked out how to make the machines actually invent.

Why do you believe that LLMs are good at the same things humans are?

I believe that we're investing trillions into making it so.

We invested at least a couple trillion of speculative value into making ugly cartoon apes the future of art, finance and property. I'm not sure it's always possible to overwhelm reality with sufficient money.

We didn't. Investment into it peaked at a few fractions of a percent of what's going into AI.

I would like to be optimistic about the whole thing falling apart, but I don't know that it will.

I'm not saying it will "fall apart", I just think the burden of proof is on AI boosters for their extraordinary claims.

They are saying this thing will soon obsolete human thought; meanwhile I use these tools every day and can't get it to refactor a React app cleanly without making a mess.

It's telling that OpenAI's decided they're going to sell ads in ChatGPT. Instead of, you know, using their AI themselves to produce all these valuable and revolutionary breakthroughs they claim it's capable of making.

Like how Anthropic has started to run their own biology labs?

Probably wildly irresponsible given they think it's likely to kill everyone with a virus, but yes.

If you have a super-intelligent AI that can cure cancer, just sell the cure for cancer already?

Medicine is a slow moving field. If they discovered the cure today how many years will it take to be certified as safe and effective by medical boards? More years than they have runway, in all likelihood.

That's another way of saying the same thing: even if AI is great, there's all kinds of reasons why it won't be a new industrial revolution.

Intelligence is very rarely the limiting reagent in progress.

No it is absolutely revolutionary, but they do have to think about cashflow.

> Why do you believe human brains are magic?

We chose the problems to value. Literally every step of a proof is equally proved as the starting point. The choice of the starting point is what makes the problem, and it's a normative choice, which is to say it is a social choice.

We have to come to terms with the reality, and we must find a way of existing with this new super tool

On my commute home there is always a street that has 5-6 Waymos trying to turn left from the middle lane because they could not successfully change lanes. Blocks traffic every single day without fail. Probably been like this for 5-6 months.

I read "could not successfully change lanes" as "were blocked from changing lanes by human drivers that either didn't notice the attempt or intentionally ignored it". I don't know where you are, but this is a complaint that I have about driving in the SF Bay Area as a human driver: people here just don't let you into their lane.

Haven't had this problem in the 10 months I've been living in the Bay. Put on your turn signal and go.

And either way, turning left from a lane that isn't a left turn lane is obviously the wrong response to failing to change lanes.

Seriously.. how are people so gullible? This is how it always starts…

Considering the rate I'm being downvoted, gullible seems too kind.

Nope, I’ve actually been checking this thread throughout the day. More upvotes / comments but didn’t break #6. My tinfoil hat says that it has been intentionally suppressed because of YC investments, but who knows :)

I found out about this release from Reddit because for some reason this frontier model post is suppressed in HN.

Had to use Algolia search to find this buried post.

Which is sad.

Not even close to 300k

Sorry you’re right, I said entry level but in my mind I was thinking after one promotion, not sure how I messed that up. L5 software dev total comp was about 300k when I left Amazon two years ago. Levels.fyi reports it’s lower now [0], but I am suspicious of that. Maybe it’s brought down by non-HCOL locations.

[0] https://www.levels.fyi/

Maybe I'm missing something but this doesn't really make sense? Right now it's more profitable to sell to datacenters because they're less price sensitive. Consumers and consumer PC manufacturers don't really care who they're buying RAM from -- they'll just buy it for the cheapest price. When it's no longer as profitable to sell to datacenters, they'll just switch to selling for consumers and will then compete against each other. Why would any RAM manufacturer choose to handicap themselves by selling to consumers today when they can earn much more selling to datacenters?

I used replit (no affiliation) and it can definitely do this for more basis use cases (simple crud app, login, etc.)

still 150 micros here. why would this go up?

Software defined networking adding latency. 10ms within a datacenter is crazy though.

Those NSA MITM attacks aren't free or fast

The pandemic over hiring that ended 4 years ago?

I wonder if people will continue blaming things on pandemic over-hiring in 2030.

Things take time to play out!

Yes

It’s still phabricator

Any idea if their internal version has improved dramatically since they stopped maintaining the public version?

It has improved massively by 2023 when I left.

I don't think they ever maintained the public project. Priestly spun off a company to do that.