>"these are the last refineries that will ever exist globally, and the system is at max capacity."
I remember reading the Kochland book a few years back and the clear subtext of the refinery section (unless I am misremembering) is that Charles Koch already realized in the 70s-80s that due to the changing environmental regulations new flagship refineries would not be getting built in the US, like at all.
Talk of raising the retirement age is a red herring in this case. The reality is that existing retirees are already too expensive and need to have their pensions cut to balance the budget.
And it won't happen because it will be political suicide. So you can expect it to continue.
>“It’s not hard to see why a vertically integrated company seems attractive,” he said. “Tesla robots linked by Starlink to xAI data centers for control and A.I. model training purposes would give SpaceX an end-to-end advantage that nobody else could replicate quickly.”
Anything is a vertical if you are willing to slop it up like this
Is that a direct quote? Reading it feels like a training simulator for blunt force head trauma. A car company is just like a . . low earth orbiter . . which is just like a server farm.
I mean, ok, I get what he's saying - trying to say. But the big things each of these units do, they're not related. It's not like a guy who makes antennas buying a television manufacturer. The "end to end" lacks ends.
My read on this is that Hegseth told him "Hey we have this Palestinian-American Islamist terrorist why don't we execute him", Trump said it was a good idea and bailed out once someone told him that using a firing squad on a paraplegic would be bad optics.
Ember Energy: EV Sales Data Tracker - https://ember-energy.org/data/ev-sales-tracker/ (updated monthly) (scope to Europe, electric vehicles (EVs) represent the single largest lever for reducing fossil import dependence")
Europe’s competitiveness depends on electricity grids - https://www.eib.org/en/stories/europe-electricity-grids - October 13th, 2026 (Europe installed ~80GW of renewable capacity in 2026, ~480GW is waiting to be connected, renewables and nuclear now generate over 70% of the EU’s electricity, and collectively ~750GW of renewable generation capacity is currently online and producing, as of this comment)
(China destroyed oil import demand by an amount the UK imports annually in less than six months with rapid EV uptake, so it can be done; speed is a matter of will and capital)
We still have never recovered to electricity prices pre-Covid, and that's despite very little growth in energy intensive industries since then. If I look at the US, then we should also expect any serious datacenter push in EU to also be powered by dirty stuff for expediency's sake.
>China destroyed oil import demand by an amount the UK imports annually in less than six months with rapid EV uptake
China has been working on EVs for like 15 years, we still have German manufacturers begging for exemptions on ICE phaseouts right now. At some point we just need to be honest and say that the Great (EV) Leap Forward won't happen and it will take like 10 years to get there.
I can bet that if in 2 years for some reason oil crashes to 30 USD we will have consumer protection orgs arguing for further extensions on ICE cars "to fight inflation" or something.
Europe needs more batteries, cross border interconnectors, transmission, etc, as they have hundreds of hours per year with negative electricity prices. Once battery deployment rate catches up, and renewables keeps up or goes faster, energy prices should go back down as the last 30% of fossil gas is pushed out of the energy mix.
- Germany hosts around a quarter of the EU’s total large-scale battery capacity, with over 2.5 GW operational by the end of 2025 – more than double the capacity of just two years earlier. A robust project pipeline and high social acceptance of the technology among German municipalities point to continued growth, with over 10 GW expected capacity, but policy barriers could hold it back.
- If Germany’s expected new large-scale battery projects had been operational in 2025, they could have avoided approximately one-third of wind and solar curtailment, cutting redispatch costs and gas purchases by about €0.8 billion. This exceeds the required investment in batteries.
- Germany’s residential battery market is Europe’s largest and shows prospects for continued growth – roughly one in six homeowners already has a battery installed, and 30% are considering purchasing one within the next five years. Smart charging of these batteries could relieve bottlenecks in the distribution grid and avoid significant system costs.
- Surging renewable output overwhelmed Europe’s power grid in 2025, driving electricity prices below zero more often than ever before.
- Negative power prices are underscoring how rapid growth in renewable generation is colliding with stagnant demand and persistent grid constraints in Europe. Germany logged 573 hours of negative prices in 2025, a 25% increase from the previous year. And Spain, which experienced negative prices for the first time in 2024, has since seen them double year-on-year.
- When strong winds or abundant sunshine flood the system with renewable power, demand is often insufficient to absorb the surplus, pushing electricity prices into negative territory. This pattern is set to continue in 2026, according to BloombergNEF, as renewable capacity continues to expand faster than grids, storage and consumption.
> China has been working on EVs for like 15 years, we still have German manufacturers begging for exemptions on ICE phaseouts right now. At some point we just need to be honest and say that the Great (EV) Leap Forward won't happen and it will take like 10 years to get there.
EV sales are growing 20% per year globally, and are already a majority of sales in China, the world's largest market. How fast we get to further tipping points is a function of how long oil supply chains remain impaired. We will get there eventually. Peak combustion vehicle sales was in 2017. As of this comment, China can manufacture ~50M EVs/year (global annual light vehicle TAM is ~90M units/year) and is exporting ~12M EVs/year. BYD plans to hire 40k auto workers in Europe over the next several years.
Maybe European legacy automakers finds the will to build EVs, maybe not. It's immaterial at this point. BYD can buy the factories and employ the workers if they lack the will. The EVs will be built and sold at scale.
- BYD plans to lift its European headcount to "absolutely over 40,000 in 2030," up from just over 10,000 soon.
- Its first European plant, in Hungary, is aiming to start mass production in the fourth quarter, with France and Spain shortlisted for additional sites.
We heard the same thing about the Draghi report and not much got done.
The big problem with satellite stuff in EU is that the quickest way to get it done is via France/Germany/Italy, but as you noted the guys pushing the hardest for it are gonna be the Baltics and Poland.
A greenfield satellite program is very hard to do.
The long term answer is Ukraine will become the European Starshield provider but they need to leverage other countries' money and launch assets to get there in the short and medium term.
Melenchon/LFI are basically showing that they can fabricate a mini Mai 68 on demand. Not good for his election chances but IMO with this the left/center left will be forced to make a deal with him to "control the street".
This and Arini in the same year is pretty bad for credit managers.
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