Simple not morbid at all example is me buying an EV instead of a gas car and leaving the heat at 68 instead of 70 this winter. That destroys some demand for oil.
I'm guessing China? China has shown the world that it can tolerate the shock, and it was even a huge boon for them as they are successfully exporting excess EV production. World demand is significant, China alone was expected to increase world oil demand to a breaking point, and that isn't happening, and in fact, China is exporting oil demand destruction.
China has almost certainly been dramatically drawing down their oil reserves. They don’t publish trustworthy numbers on it like western countries do, but their import rates dropped too fast for any other explanation.
That’s not to say they haven’t done a phenomenal job with demand destruction it’s just their own domestic usage is still very high and they have to import unlike other heavy users.
> That’s not to say they haven’t done a phenomenal job with demand destruction it’s just their own domestic usage is still very high and they have to import unlike other heavy users.
They will, just not as much as everyone was predicting a two decades ago. The fact that China isn't really feeling any pressure at all here should be a wake up call (they depend on oil, just less and less as time goes on). It isn't just that though, they basically took Nepal off oil completely, a bit of a special case since they had to import via India, which was always really expensive (and Nepal has lots of hydro). And the rest of the third world which simply can't afford much oil anyways now has a convenient other option.
Likewise, I don't see why ICE lovers are up in arms about people buying EVs. Shouldn't that just mean more oil (and less pricing pressure) for them?
China is the 5th largest oil producer in the world and the 2nd largest consumer. It's not just pulling from reserves that has dropped their consumption: for instance they have been switching very rapidly to electric trucks. At the same time they've been increasing internal production. I'm sure their goal is to balance production and consumption, to electrify enough of their demand that internal production can cover the remaining demand that's more difficult to electrify: jets, tanks, plastic, etc.
Compare the US and China on oil usage. The US is a net exporter compared to China being a huge importer.
And they for _sure_ are pulling from reserves since the US attacked Iran. The volume of imports and usage figures can only be explained that way. The impressive thing is the numbers suggest their reserves were massive and probably bigger than anyone thought.
They are for sure electrifying fast. In many ways the envy of the world on this. But they are oil import dependent and likely going to be more so soon if their reserves draw down too far.
China reducing their oil imports was a huge boon to the entire world. China basically said "look everyone, we're strong, we'll reduce oil imports to help the rest of the world, and that will benefit all of us together, and also we're manufacturing and selling EVs and solar panels".
China is showing the world they have reached the lofty ideal of being a functional society, and I hate that an authoritarian Communist government was how they did it. I don't want to live under such a government, but I can't deny it's looking like a stronger form of government right now.
For the rest of us, if we want democracy to be better than authoritarian Communism, then we actually have to do the "be better" part.
Demand destruction is a specific concept in economics where high prices for something cause a lasting reduction in demand. The other comments explain typical mechanisms for this, like high prices for fossil fuels spurring on electrification of machinery powered by fossil fuels, which then reduces the demand base for fossil fuels. Or the downturn of economies being accelerated by fossil fuel pricing pressure, increasing deindustrialization, and reducing fuel demand (e.g. what europe is experiencing).
Destroying demand is about getting people to not consume the thing. Oil being a knock on everything else and at such a volume would probably starve millions at the very least. This whole thing is a depopulation war. If you're reading this, you're on the losing side.
We as a planet were approaching Peak Oil consumption and this mishap has just acclerated that slightly. In all likelyhood annual oil consumtion will slowly decline or maybe quickly.
They sugggested a cooperation with the other guy, using OpenAI's resources and OpenAI's solution of NS to work on and publish NS proof (that those other guys didn't have). Of course, OpenAI can decide whom to work with and that giving resources to their competitor's employee would be weird for both companies.
No. Euler solution would have bith names, this was not up to debate. The discussion was about the solution for NS, which was solved by OpenAI, but not by B&A. OpenAI proposed B a cooperation on NS (were super-nice and threw him a bone, really) using OpenAI's findings and resources. It would be weird to have A, an Anthropic employee, as part of the OpenAI research and project.
I'm not sure why reading and writing the registry is considered a bad interface for programmatic system administration.
I realize text files can be processed by utilities for working with text files. And text files can be read by humans without any tools, and in that sense are rather universal.
I wonder what I'm missing.
I'd go so far as to think an OS that had a database at its core, or perhaps a persistent lisp would be even more programmable and legible.
Maybe better tools for dealing with structured data would help this?
I love this. I see this vision, in many forms, yet have trouble articulating in a way that motivates and inspires others, including myself.
I don't think a lack of hardware and software technology is what is lacking, but rather a vision, a dream, a call to action and corresponding courage to act while facing down an invisible enemy that can only been seen by its effects on the world.
Thank you for articulating it clearly. It inspires me to take a step back from building, and consider what I'm building and why.
That might actually compensate for the overthinking, if it can think really fast. Dense models are easier than MoE to put on silicon. https://chatjimmy.ai/ is getting 16k tps with an 8B model. Extrapolating that gives nearly 5k tps for 27B. And we're still early in this technology.
If tps is so high, a compaction step could be performed over every thinking turn to keep context size down.
My first introduction to the blog was through his Lord of the Rings Siege of Gondor serie, and I've been a Patreon supporter ever since. It's well worth the time.
That will vary by person. My father-in-law bred and milked pedigreed Holsteins. They had a 1 gallon pasteurizer and would just dip a gallon out of the bulk tank for household use when needed. So, most of the time they had pasteurized, non-homogenized. On occasion, the pasteurizer would break, so for a while they would drink raw milk. But of course understood the risk, and also knew darn well where the milk had come from and how clean the milking facility was.
I'm not sure. Judging by my own family, I think a lot of them have been info-silo'ed to think pasteurization is harmful and that "They" want to keep raw milk from you.
I'd liken it to claiming an anti-measles-vax person is aware of the risks of measles. They might not believe in the risk at all.
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