My hope is that the SteamOS/Steam Machines movement will finally tip the scales in favor of OpenGL.
A "killer app" that is fully OpenGL optimised with a delayed or worse performing DirectX port would seal the deal. If only Valve had more franchis3s...
I'd be willing to bet serious money that if Valve released HL Ep.3 with the Steam Box next holiday season, they could upgrade their mattress stuffing from $20s to $100s. Even if they released Windows and Linux versions simultaneously, they would absolutely kill it.