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I very much like your analysis. We need to look into more details and the very different nature of things today. We are still viewing inflation as if there is one economy. But there are many different (global) markets resulting in very cheap things (e.g. from abroad - TVs) and expensive things (e.g. locally - Food). We need to add this to our view and also anticipate where these modern factors lead to: Wage stagnation, still high increase in prices for local goods + development of the "cheap goods producing countries". Last factor will also increase the prices of those goods, which could set off this time bomb (and cause the civil war mentioned).


Imbalanced trade is one of the biggest drivers of wage stagnation. Export surplus countries must keep their wages artificially low which forces importing countries to compete by cutting their wages.

I.e. low wages in Germany drag the entire EU's wage level down.


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