Micron has 3 brand new fabs currently under construction, 2 Boise, 1 in New York as the first of 4 planned for a campus.
Plus expanding other existing facilities.
These things take ~3-5 years from breaking ground to full production. You'd have had to anticipate the current demand years before it happened in order to be bringing production on-line before 2030 or so.
Samsung and HK Hynix also have fabs under construction and planned.
CXMT started 11 years ago and only now is reaching any real volume. If they decided a year ago to react to the current demand cycle they'd be 6-7 years out.
Not much you can really do to wish for more fabrication to exist on any timeline not measured in fractional decades.
Could they do more and react quicker? Probably, but everything I've read on the subject seems to point to 3 years is absolute bare minimum if you happen to have a shovel ready project with the land bought, local permitting completed, infrastructure extended to the site, and a skilled workforce already in place. They could suspend buy-backs/dividends today and dump it all into building production and there would be no material impact until around 2030.
> The Micron CEO just recently said this is the exact plan
CEO simply stated the demand pressure will not go away through 2027, and supply will not increase until around 2028 when currently under construction fabs start shipping volume. The article does not support your statement.
You can see the SKUs they base the prices on by hovering over a data point, and the products just don't generally represent the market. Oftentimes the whole market is represented by some bottom of the barrel legacy memory, single stick in some warehouse. During the last years DDR3 and DDR4 haven't gotten as expensive as the current generations, and I think the memory compatible with current systems should represent the market rather than a Toshiba Satellite 4 GB extension kit.
> CXMT started 11 years ago and only now is reaching any real volume. If they decided a year ago to react to the current demand cycle they'd be 6-7 years out.
It's taken them this long to catch up to the DDR5 standard. They've only recently been through qualifications to be a DDR5 supplier for the big boys.
> Every Major Motherboard Maker Now Validates CXMT DDR5
I'm fully open to the idea of having to fly to China to buy hardware. If we're seeing $25,000 US prices versus like $4,000 in China, might as well go visit the great wall and have a vacation.
The second Micron boise fab hasn't even broken ground yet, they are still working on the first one. So don't expect these things to be completed in parallel.
Some of my family is pretty happy, though, with the job security as they are pretty convinced these projects are all going to take much longer than what's being stated publicly. Micron is saying the first chip from the new fab will be in 2027... though they also predicted it'd be 2026. The date seems pretty slippy.
Anyone who has been around the semiconductor industry since the last century will remember various huge fabs e.g. in Arizona that were partially built but never finished due to oversupply by the time the walls and roof were done.
If memory prices cool, in about 2 years, Micron will stop new projects, they have done it before.
Especially given CXMT has been able to scale up much faster than what most people expected, only reason their isn't a bigger impact is modern HBM is hard to CXMT even today.
We are likely to see supply double in the next 3 years, but demand even out with optimizations, cooling of data center demand, and most importantly moving some of the dram to flash demand instead which is much easier to produce and scale.
Capitalism eats itself this way. Second and third order effects will collapse the demand.
You need to keep the market healthy, not some insane Bitcoin style HODL pump - that's how you get wrecked.
I mean I'm not a neoclassicalist but I've read all of them. I'm in consensus with them here. There's a bunch of theories on what a healthy market is but what we're currently seeing matches none of them.
It's short term profitable but long term disastrous, especially in a world where new mathematics and techniques could literally collapse the demand overnight.
Imagine if some paper hits arxiv and the 256 GB requirement for some model now becomes 64. Woops!
Some clever trick about how attention heads and context Windows work could potentially slash a bunch of requirements by giant margins and all they're doing is firing the starting gun at that global race with every obscenely priced unit they sell.
But if prices were reasonable, this wouldn't be an apocalypse. It'd be fine. Consumers wouldn't rush to 64GB, they'd say " Cool I can multitask now at 256" or " great I can do horizontal scalability' or something else.
But no they created the market conditions so now what would happen is the consumer will immediately flip the 192GB they don't need on eBay, hoping to snatch a profit before the prices tank and the second hand market will be flooded the rug will be pulled out from the luxury pricing and everyone will get screwed.
This has happened in electronics markets before. Many times.
When Engels talked about the grave diggers of capitalism they were looking at it through a 19th century labor/manufacturing lens but arguably this same dynamic is at play here.
What "second- and third-order effects" do you suppose will collapse the demand for RAM? The people complaining most loudly about RAM costs are the people who want to run local models; if that becomes popular it will supercharge RAM demand, because locally-hosted models can't parallelize runs from many users the way cloud-hosted ones can. I don't see any slackening in RAM demand at any point in the foreseeable future, even if the big AI companies all go bust.
> The people complaining most loudly about RAM costs are the people who want to run local models
This is a tiny percentage of the population.
Samsung is cutting phone production because of RAM prices.[1] The consumer market is badly affected: budget phones, laptops, general electronics.
The budget segment of sub $100 devices in India has been almost wiped out. Manufacturers cannot afford to spend 50% BOM on RAM+storage. Unless employees are getting a 15-20% wage rise this year, I expect a similar situation in most places.
Between the engineered conflict in the ME triggering O&G price rises, and stratospheric RAM pricing, the situation is pretty bad.
This is all hypothetical and debating hypotheticals isn't productive so let's roll back to markets.
Let's say ram used to cost $100 and now that same unit costs $1000. You paid say $500x1,000 for that unit during the price increase or some price where you can currently flip for profit.
You have a very expensive data center and you're in debt financed on the premise that you have these special computers.
Now a new technique comes out and it turns out you only need 1 memory unit for something that used to require 8 or 4 or some meaningful multiplier.
This stuff happens all the time. It's why we don't use BMP files on websites or serve giant MOV files on YouTube. It's why postgres queries are faster now than they were 10 and 20 years ago.
You rent out your machines. You need to service your debt.. Demand may 8x overnight to accommodate but you have a monthly bill to pay and that's unlikely. It's likely going to drop.
Think about it. Your customers are paying maybe $10,000 a month and serving their customers. Now they can drop that to $1,250.
On market if you were to sell some of that ram you have 100% profit right now but not for long.
Jevons paradox assumes unlimited capitalization, zero debt servicing, infinite time horizons...
We live in the real world so what do you do?
Historically the answer has been "sell that shit"
There's an aphorism for this "stairs on the way up elevator on the way down"
If we had a healthy market with sane prices where you can't flip the thing you bought for 100% profit the answer would be "create more value."
> locally-hosted models can't parallelize runs from many users the way cloud-hosted ones can
Why not? Unlike many other workloads, LLM inference actually seems pretty suitable for decentralization (effectively stateless means no availability concerns; bandwidth and latency are relatively forgiving too).
I think locally-hosted models at the org level will definitely be somewhat popular, but you seem to be talking about decentralizing for people's personal, non-business use, and I just don't think that's going to happen to any real degree.
People who say they want local runs really mean it: they want local runs on hardware in their room, not on some decentralized system which, if it existed, would almost certainly just be a worse, less-reliable version of cloud hosting. I'm not saying nobody would use it, but it sounds a lot like things like IPFS, which have also completely failed to displace either cloud storage or buying a bunch of disks for your own private use.
Some people will care a lot about keeping their data on-prem, but many others probably won't, and the former can then resell their spare capacity to the latter.
Decentralized storage is much harder, since there reliability matters a lot more as it's inherently stateful. You have to assume data loss, so you have to replicate everything; with inference, you only have to spend extra resources at failover time. Also storage can't be time-shared in the same way as compute; if it's full, it's full even when not actively accessed.
I mean I guess there's nothing left which can settle this disagreement except to see how it turns out. I'll just restate my opinion that, from a user experience and product perspective, decentralized model hosting will look like using the big labs, except worse in every way. I don't expect it to please either the people who want local control or the people who are happy using the products from the big labs now.
> Imagine if some paper hits arxiv and the 256 GB requirement for some model now becomes 64. Woops!
If you were a DRAM manufacturer, isn't this exactly the kind of thing that would make you think twice about investing years and $billions in new fab construction?
I had a list of controllers that we forgot the usernames and passwords to. We knew it was some combination from about a half dozen of each, just not exactly what was what. A few hundred of them so a tedious task for a human to go through and validate them all.
Got flagged for attempting to have Codex write a quick script to basically dictionary attack my own infrastructure with a tiny dictionary file.
> So your inability to supply that demand resulted in you creating the conditions for competition to show up, and that competition can very likely outcompete you out of the market.
Doubtful. Your competition started building out additional production roughly when you did. Lets say you got a 1 year head start on shovels in the ground.
Those competitors have decades of experience producing RAM. You do not. Even if you get your facility on-line to first wafer a year earlier than the incumbents, it's unlikely you will beat them to full production output as even extremely experienced operators take 6-18mo to get a fab from first production to expected nominal output.
The only way to "win" this is to have started before the supply crunch happened back in 2021 or 2022 - or more likely much earlier. Like CXMT did.
If you were able to find a bunch of investors to give you $40-50B today, already had a site ready to start construction literally tomorrow, by the time you are on-line you will be competing with new capacity currently being built by Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix - not to mention CXMT. The only way you will be profitable is if the current demand exists through 2031 and beyond.
I know I certainly wouldn't be investing in such a project, since the entire bet is that RAM prices 5 years from now will still be at roughly what they are today. Which is simply a bet that the current AI bubble and infrastructure build-out is still ongoing.
> But here's a CEO saying he's going to make sure prices stay high enough, long enough that you can spin up a competitor
2 years is not remotely enough time to spin up a competitor. It's not even enough time for a current leading competitor to spin up another fab.
If you are a newcomer you are talking a decade or more before mass production. If you are HK Hynix perhaps 5 years or so.
The majors all have large fabs under construction, but the majority of new production from those facilities won't be coming fully on-line until 2028 at the earliest. Even from the date of first wafer shipped most of these facilities take 6-12mo to reach mass production level output.
Chinese DRAM is interesting only because they started building capacity (expertise) a decade ago. Only now are the expected to have any material impact on the total volume of the market. And if they want to gain even more market share, they will be under the same ~5 years to spin up a brand new fabrication plant. Perhaps a bit less because they are China, but still multiple years.
And it's important to point out how long these fabs have been under construction.
Micron started building it's new fab in 2022. They are expecting their first chips to be out by 2027 (maybe). The projected cost, $50B.
This is a fundamental problem which the free market cannot handle. It takes multiple years and billions for competitors to spin up. No sane bank or business person would try and get into cutting edge memory fabrication. That means the players we have are the players we'll likely always have (With MAYBE china entering the arena).
The free market only works when the required upfront capital for a new player to enter a business is relatively low. In industries where the players are static or shrinking, you have a free market failure.
> 2 years is not remotely enough time to spin up a competitor. It's not even enough time for a current leading competitor to spin up another fab.
A thing I heard from a friend who works in at one of the largest providers of production machines in this space: they have the machines and for some slices of the market they could basically ship them to a new fab next week. The problem is more in the installation (since the installs themselves are complicated), where they're basically limited by not having enough people to go around and _do the installs_.
It's really funny to think about how the bottleneck is so deep in the chain.
Imagine being the sucker to go and do a big capex build out for a hypothetical demand in two years. Have fun explaining that to the investors who supported you. Also you probably need 5 years to cover your expenses at whatever the current costs are. If the volatile prices collapse you are in a world of hurt.
Someone will certainly take this bet - but it is a high risk one.
And it's not just a few people. The sophisticated scalping operations have hundreds of straw buyers in their network. For items that generate far less profit than a 5090 currently does.
I've watched vans dropping of an endless stream of people in the parking lot of my local Costco to buy out all the cases of Pokemon cards within 20 minutes of the "random" drop they put on the floor. They go in, buy the max quantity of the item with cash provided by their keeper, bring it back to the van with a receipt and change, and get the $20-30 per item pay they were promised. There were 2 or 3 'legit' buyers out of hundreds of obvious straw buyers.
If the profit per item is $4-5k, expect this to go into turbo mode and be done in a marketplace/automated fashion and go viral. Just sign up to your favorite scalper's platform, submit your information, get a quote and a prepaid label and drop the box you got from nVidia off at USPS the next day. That "tens of thousands" of individuals will turn into "millions" really quick once it gets known there is rent money involved by clicking a few buttons and it goes viral on all the social media platforms.
The only way out from that is manufacturer enough cards to meet demand, and at that point the retail channel doesn't really matter.
I helped implement the concept of a "Sunday Supper" with our friend group in the city. It's basically held every Sunday and rotates to different households who feel like hosting that day. Luckily one person is sort of the "default" since their family's child situation makes it more convenient for them to host vs. go elsewhere.
It's basically an open invite for a group of friends, and a standing thing that just happens. If you have no other plans, you basically go. Sometimes I have to drag myself out of the house to do it - but it's worth it every time. The group that attends sometimes is just one other couple, sometimes it's a house full of 30 people if everyone comes, brings their kids, and a few friends of friends tag along.
Definitely one of the better things I've been involved in!
It's a loose RSVP. A few extra folks showing up last minute is not a big deal, the meals are usually "family style" and leftovers get taken home most of the time.
If someone is rolling in with a larger than usual group they typically bring enough extra food to go around.
And yep, a lot of these are pot luck style to some degree. Host makes main course, everyone else pitches in on other stuff.
Definitely some loose coordination involved and the host will typically call a roll call the day before to get an estimate of number of people dropping by.
> Especially when they cross into the physical realm as in not properly secured and air gapped control systems. SCADA is scary.
What about the bad actors (choose your own evildoer here) who purposefully do not air gap their agents? And specifically train them to attack in such a manner?
I'd much rather have relatively benign stuff like this hit first, because the former is coming sooner than later. It's already here in a limited manner, likely more than any of us currently realize.
Botnets could crack passwords faster than anyone thought possible over 20 years ago now. This is just the latest iteration of such a concept.
There is so much low hanging fruit in this space that frontier models are currently utterly irrelevant. It's going to take decades of human-speed securing of IT to make superintelligence or whatever you want to call it a necessary component for such attacks.
At this point, someone with a rack or three of GPUs with 100kw to burn can replicate such attacks if they feel like it. the bar for entry is not even 7 figures.
It’s almost always both. Basically every single retired person I know in my family or friends of family are relying on their home to be their primary asset/income in retirement. It’s always a much larger chunk of their net worth than any retirement savings, if they even have the latter.
They were commonly called forced savings accounts when I was growing up. The standard advice was to buy a home as an investment vehicle. Every older family member giving me advice would preach about how they don’t make any more land and the price will only go up.
You can - to this day - talk until your are blue in the face to these people that your primary place of living is not an investment, but they will refuse to even entertain the idea even with the stark cold math staring at them in the face.
If these retired folks can’t sell their homes for a huge profit they will be in for some very difficult times a decade or two from now. They are highly motivated to keep the music playing as long as they can vote and show up to local city council meetings.
Rehabilitation has never really been the point of the US prison or even correctional system at all.
The fact you can serve your time, earnestly work on rehabilitating yourself, jump through all the hoops, etc. but still be under the economic death sentence more or less summarizes how people feel about it.
It’s basically NIMBY applied to the justice system. Everyone loves to pretend they want rehabilitation but also wants someone else to do it. This shows up in hiring, apartment leasing, social benefits, etc.
>Everyone loves to pretend they want rehabilitation but also wants someone else to do it.
People on the left love to pretend this, perhaps. Those of us on the right make no such pretense. It's about punishment, sequestration, and deterrence in that order. Rehabilitation doesn't even enter our minds.
Why do you pretend? It wouldn't surprise anyone if you were to just be honest and that you don't care about rehabilitation either, it's rather that you don't want a justice system at all. We all know that already. There's no reason to hide it.
Why do you continue to pay taxes for private for-profit prisons?
If you don't see value in the U.S. Constitution and providing human beings a chance at reformation, you should advocate for killing falsely convicted criminals before they enter prision and die of inhumane conditions. Wouldn't that be more efficient for your worldview?
I'd love to see a "murder any criminal" bill named for you. I think you would too, so go for it!
>Why do you continue to pay taxes for private for-profit prisons?
Taxes weren't optional last I checked.
>If you don't see value in the U.S. Constitution
Which part of the Constitution is it that guarantees air conditioning? Did I miss an amendment?
>and providing human beings a chance at reformation
Everyone has not only the choice at reformation, if they choose poorly there's always another opportunity to do so later that day. To do so the next morning. If they have to be bribed for that with air conditioning or anything else, they're as far from it as any human can possibly be.
You have a right to advocate for how your taxes are used. Advocate for killing white-collar criminals before they reach prision, and then closing unused prisions, if saving taxpayer money is the only thing that matters to you. Maybe you'll find enough supporters for your cause to make capital punishment a mandatory alternative to prision for all convicted white-collar felons, like future offenders along the lines of Ghislaine Maxwell and Donald J. Trump.
For those in prision today, they can't be rehabilitated if they're dead due to heat stroke caused by cruel and unreasonable 115 degree heat.
> The U.S. locks up people at 5x the rate of South Korea. Whatever the difference is, it’s not because the U.S. is unwilling to punish people.
The difference is in consistency in enforcement and general background crime rate.
If you have a nearly guaranteed chance of getting caught doing something, the punishment almost doesn't matter. If every single time you went over the speed limit you got a $500 fine 100% guaranteed, there would be effectively zero speeders ever. If you have a 1 in a million chance of getting caught but the punishment is 10 years in prison - there will still be plenty of speeders all over the place.
Humans do not do well with estimating risk on low probability events. We are all just big children in the end. Consistency in consequences are what actually matters, not overly harsh punishment.
See Mark Kleiman's - When Brute Force Fails. The book mentions the Hawaiian HOPE project. The dealt with parolees by punishing violations with immediate mild punishment (i.e. you're back in jail over this weekend)instead of allowing violations to accumulate over time and then coming down on the person like a ton of bricks ( on your 10th positive urine test you go back to jail for a month).
Many crimes are committed by repeat offenders so it would eliminate a decent chunk of crime. Over 60% of violent criminals in the US get rearrested for another crime. Almost 40% of nonviolent criminals get rearrested for another crime.
If they stop committing crimes either because they are still in jail or dead, the crime rate would absolutely drop.
Depends how effective the enforcement is; but anyone who wants to repeat Pol Pot is someone to run from quickly, if they get anywhere near a position of power.
What would that look like - increasing the number of US police officers by 2x etc. to ensure they catch every person who commits any crime? Reducing the rights of those accused of a crime to ensure they don't skate?
An acquaintance of mine experienced severe domestic violence (trying to choke him to death with an accomplice in front of his children + another witness).
She got arrested for that since the law requires it for domestic violence and turned out she had skipped bail for a grand theft auto conviction. She served 3 days then got released because the county jail was full.
Her conviction for domestic violence ended up being 6 days in another county jail.
She has since been running around committing more crimes, including stealing her children’s IDs, birth certificates, social security cards, and using them commit welfare benefits fraud. Police took a report and won’t go pick her up since it’s a nonviolent crime despite her violent history.
I’m not sure what’s needed (more police to say sorry, we can’t help you isn’t what’s needed), but having an antisocial person selling her children’s food benefits is not a good thing. Before anyone says she needs “services”, she already gets a guaranteed disability income, free housing, and her own food and free medical benefits including addiction rehab services.
Wow. Your single anecdote showing humans have created an imperfect system, and/or sometimes some people just don't want to live in society with others no matter what, once again has really shown me that we should only ever go after the symptoms instead of working on the real problems. More police! More jail time for everyone! Death penalty for minor offenses! More jails need to be built! Surely that will fix it this time!
Neither. The US has a problem with incompetency in policing. Part of that stems from the prevalence of far-right ideology that is common among US police but not common in peer developed countries. Far-right officers are ideologically disposed to not being effective, either because they prefer punishment to procedure, or because it's in their interest to keep crime high.
Fix those two issues and the same number of officers will catch many more criminals.
I think you have to start with increase policing so that there’s a high chance of being caught. In the US, 2x is nowhere near enough given the size and number of street lights available to vandalize.
We have literal high tech surveillance equipment being vandalized at scale with not many people getting caught. Referring to the Deflock movement
It would look like an AI-driven surveillance state, combined with near-immediate consequences which are individually slap-on-the-wrist penalties and only become severe if they are repeated.
AI, not human, because the actual incidence rate for a lot of crimes is much much higher than most people realise, including for extremely severe cases:
• Statistically speaking I think it's something like most Americans commit three felonies per day*, but that's probably mostly drugs which IMO should be liberalised anyway.
• For an example of extremely serious crimes, and again statistically speaking, your first day in highschool, your first class on that day, you likely met someone who had been sexually assaulted by a family member.
Increasing a human police force to the scale needed to catch all crimes is theoretically possible (the Stasi basically operated at this scale even if they only thing they cared about was sedition) but is a terrible idea.
If all crimes keep their current penalties, a fully automated surveillance state bankrupts everyone almost immediately.
Note: I'm not suggesting this is a good future. I don't think it's a stable equilibrium, I think there's too high a risk of a leadership using such a surveillance capability to hold power, and they may even not care too much about non-state crimes once they do seize power, so this could easily become Stasi 2.0 or worse.
Yeah, as a human race, we've clearly reached the technological era where deep, ubiquitous surveillance is both technologically and economically feasible. For a few years now, I've been thinking we need a constitutional amendment to restrict the mechanisms, deployment, and use of mass automated surveillance.
Human beings don't empathize well with situations nor people they never have to personally face. That's a well-lit path to fascism. We're one step closer to 1984.
> For a few years now, I've been thinking we need a constitutional amendment to restrict the mechanisms, deployment, and use of mass automated surveillance.
The fourth amendment should really have been interpreted to cover this, but the courts have an unreasonable bias for giving law enforcement the benefit of the doubt
It'd definitely be my preference to lean on existing law where it makes sense (law is already too complicated). Unfortunately, IANAL, so I don't know what makes the most sense. Whatever we have doesn't seem to be doing a great job against the mass spread of cameras and abuse.
Or maybe what constitutes a crime should be rethought (e.g. there is no reason at all to keep the "war on drugs" going, it clearly has failed), and instead focus on prevention?
That way you'd get a massive reduction in crime without having to invest into more police officers.
What would ‘prevention’ look like? (As many other commenters seem to be pointing to many other crimes being as a result of people being on drugs, yes.)
4. Expand access to mental and physical healthcare so that everyone can get access to the care they need.
5. Remove the hurdles placed in front of social welfare programs. When people don't have to steal to make 10 bucks just to have something to eat or their next dose of whatever drug they're shooting up, that takes a lot of petty crime away.
6. Provide (access to) public toilets everywhere.
7. End the "war on drugs". Provide legal ways to access high-purity substances, either via dispensaries and allowing people to grow their own (for low risk stuff such as cannabis), or via pharmacies (for mid-risk stuff that already has pharmaceutical supply chains such as cocaine), or via dedicated centers for higher risk stuff such as heroin.
> As many other commenters seem to be pointing to many other crimes being as a result of people being on drugs, yes.
with the drug-related crimes, it's not just about the crimes being done in the pursuit of money or drugs... it's also about cleaning up the streets. Organized crime makes enough money purely from drugs (especially cocaine) that they can commandeer entire nation states, with their militia often being much stronger on paper and in practice than the official military, and the constant infights between cartels and gangs is endangering everyone around them.
That’s already been done in my area and really doesn’t make a huge difference. Some people are so antisocial they are difficult to house (causing fights with neighbours, burning buildings down and so forth). But yes, it does help to have both abundant inexpensive housing and also programs for people who can’t afford it.
It does have to be paired with police enforcement that doesn’t tolerate living on the street or in a park when housing is available.
It also becomes a problem when people who live in such housing abuse it, such as operating drug dealing out of it.
>4. Expand access to mental and physical healthcare so that everyone can get access to the care they need.
We tried that too. It’s great for people like me. Some people refuse to access mental health or addiction rehab services. So the access is there.
>5. Remove the hurdles placed in front of social welfare programs. When people don't have to steal to make 10 bucks just to have something to eat or their next dose of whatever drug they're shooting up, that takes a lot of petty crime away.
There is zero public support to give drug addicts extra cash to go buy more drugs.
Other than that, benefits are generous - I can say definitively nobody is going hungry. Some people will still refuse to apply for benefits. I stayed a few days in a hospital and my hospital roommate refused to apply for any benefits because he didn’t want to give the government info they could use to try to get the child support he owes. (The hospital sent a social worker in every few hours to try to persuade him.) Should such a person be given benefits including cash benefits?
>6. Provide (access to) public toilets everywhere.
We have that too. You need staff to clean them and it’s not fun to clean up after an antisocial person.
>7. End the "war on drugs". Provide legal ways to access high-purity substances, either via dispensaries and allowing people to grow their own (for low risk stuff such as cannabis), or via pharmacies (for mid-risk stuff that already has pharmaceutical supply chains such as cocaine), or via dedicated centers for higher risk stuff such as heroin.
There is no public support for a heroin dispensary.
> As many other commenters seem to be pointing to many other crimes being as a result of people being on drugs, yes.
with the drug-related crimes, it's not just about the crimes being done in the pursuit of money or drugs... it's also about cleaning up the streets. Organized crime makes enough money purely from drugs (especially cocaine) that they can commandeer entire nation states, with their militia often being much stronger on paper and in practice than the official military, and the constant infights between cartels and gangs is endangering everyone around them.
Well, around here drugs are so cheap it’s not a big deal to pay for them. Now we just have loads of drug addicts who are strung out all the time, and in addition they can’t earn income with small time drug dealing like they used to. A fentanyl habit is cheap (maybe $10 a day) which is easily financed by selling eg your children’s food stamps card.
The public is not going to support the government paying people to shoot up drugs all day.
I think you've hit the point with "don't tolerate" the antisocial behavior, once you've put the avenues for assistance in place. If you're homeless, or addicted, and you accept help to get over those things, great. If you reject it, that choice should not be tolerated, and you should be bused to the county line and trespassed.
- Harsh prosecution and punishment of corruption and white collar crimes, combined with publicity around these efforts. How can you expect someone to respect the law if they routinely see those in power over them (the police, their employer, their senator, etc.) get away with criminal activity?
- After setting up safeguards to enforce privacy protections, vastly increase the use of camera-based traffic enforcement. For example, create separate traffic enforcement agencies so that police don't have access to camera data. Use trajectcontroles (Dutch word for a system where multiple cameras on highway entrances/exits track your license plate and ensure your average speed was below the limit), cameras that detect texting while driving (pioneered by the UK), microphone-linked cameras in residential areas that detect modified exhausts (pioneered by Taiwan), and HOV-lane enforcement cameras. Keep traffic officers focused on ensuring that everyone has a valid/viewable license plate. The result should be a system where committing small traffic violations is not normalized.
- Reduce the punishments for most crimes. Large punishments are cruel, expensive to dole out, and less effective than consistent enforcement + small punishments.
- Set high expectations for police officers and create a culture of accountability. Fire those who are playing on their phones and arrest those who are committing crimes. You probably need independent oversight agencies to be able to do this.
- Make police highly visible - bright yellow high-vis vests and cars (pioneered by Antwerp) ensure that police are there to deter crime rather than hide and catch it.
- Provide actual public services so that people have a chance to succeed. A variety of unpleasant behaviors (e.g. public defecation, being disruptive/yelling in public, public drug use/intoxication) are things that no one wants to do - they are driven by a lack of, for example, homeless services, mental health services, and drug treatment services.
- Reprioritize enforcement (looking at you, drug task forces). Expand the legal definition of entrapment and stop doing so many B.S. sting operations.
My state has tried this (very low sentences, often just a few days in jail, if that) and it doesn’t help the repeat offender rate at all.
Likewise, virtually everyone poor has access to mental health services, healthcare in general, addiction help and so on. That doesn’t do any good for people who refuse to use it. Sometimes a court orders someone to attend their mental health provider appointments, drug rehab, etc as terms of a sentence.
Reprioritising enforcement for drugs hasn’t helped either. It just means fentanyl is everywhere. It turns out some drugs are actually bad.
As far as “make police enforce visible plates” - that simply leads to more high conflict situations where the person they pull over is going to run; do you want more police chases ending in a violent arrest?
> My state has tried this (very low sentences, often just a few days in jail, if that) and it doesn’t help the repeat offender rate
Doesn't do anything unless you also get consistent about catching people
>Likewise, virtually everyone poor has access to mental health services, healthcare in general, addiction help and so on.
Really? If so, that's amazing. What state in the US has actually given all people access to mental health services and addiction help.
> Reprioritising enforcement for drugs hasn’t helped either. It just means fentanyl is everywhere.
Fentanyl is a thing because strict enforcement necessitates drugs that are more compact/easier to hide. Many other countries still have heroine.
>As far as “make police enforce visible plates” - that simply leads to more high conflict situations where the person they pull over is going to run; do you want more police chases ending in a violent arrest?
I would suggest focusing on impounding vehicles rather than chasing people.
Lots of states in the U.S. have a comprehensive Medicaid system where someone not otherwise covered by insurance can access healthcare. In some states it is better than others. My own state happens to be exceptional.
That doesn't mean you can force everyone who needs mental health services to go actually avail themselves of them.
You can't impound a vehicle without stopping the person driving it first. Most people don't use non visible plates anyway; they would first steal tags from another vehicle.
> Harsh prosecution and punishment of corruption and white collar crimes, combined with publicity around these efforts. How can you expect someone to respect the law if they routinely see those in power over them (the police, their employer, their senator, etc.) get away with criminal activity?
Yeah bro, your average diseased junkie is definitely watching MSNBC and reading the WSJ in between rounds of fentanyl and shitting on the side walk.
Micron has 3 brand new fabs currently under construction, 2 Boise, 1 in New York as the first of 4 planned for a campus.
Plus expanding other existing facilities.
These things take ~3-5 years from breaking ground to full production. You'd have had to anticipate the current demand years before it happened in order to be bringing production on-line before 2030 or so.
Samsung and HK Hynix also have fabs under construction and planned.
CXMT started 11 years ago and only now is reaching any real volume. If they decided a year ago to react to the current demand cycle they'd be 6-7 years out.
Not much you can really do to wish for more fabrication to exist on any timeline not measured in fractional decades.
Could they do more and react quicker? Probably, but everything I've read on the subject seems to point to 3 years is absolute bare minimum if you happen to have a shovel ready project with the land bought, local permitting completed, infrastructure extended to the site, and a skilled workforce already in place. They could suspend buy-backs/dividends today and dump it all into building production and there would be no material impact until around 2030.
> The Micron CEO just recently said this is the exact plan
CEO simply stated the demand pressure will not go away through 2027, and supply will not increase until around 2028 when currently under construction fabs start shipping volume. The article does not support your statement.
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