The industry is broken. It's broken in the same sense the railroad industry is broken. It has reached the point of abundance, where we're doing things that don't need doing. That won't get done in an efficient market. But since we're not in an efficient market, there are globs of capital thrown at people building stuff that.. doesn't stand a chance of actually making any return on capital.
But while it lasts, us, the glorified machine-minders (just like railroad engineers, well, minded the engines), get paid large lumps of money, through large hordes of managers, arguing on minutia of conversion optimization, and fundamentally, being paid enough to not to try and do something else, perhaps competitive.
And that is broken. Especially for the "smarter of us" - the graduation ceremony of my physics department rings true - we've trained you to discover the secrets of universe and reach the stars, and most of us will use it.. to gain an edge at Lehman Brothers.
(And I think the root of this problem, is the abundance of low-risk capital, from people who expect a small return and a pension that lasts for decades in retirement)
Ready at what level, though. The subtleties are what matters.
It’s well established that belligerents can use mines, to separate the tactical decision of deploying for purposes of area denial; from the snap-second lethal decision (if one can stretch that definition) to detonate in response to an triggering event.
Dario’s model prohibits using AI to decide between enemy combatant and an innocent civilian (even if the AI is bad at it, it is better than just detonating anyways); Sam’s model inherits the notion that the „responsible human” is one that decided to mine that bridge; and AI can make the kill decision.
How is that fundamentally different in the future war where an officer might make a decision to send a bunch of drones up; but the drones themselves take on the lethal choice of enemy/ally/no-combatant engagement without any human in the loop? ELI5 why we can’t view these as smarter mines?
It's different because we are talking about a technology that we might lose control over at some point. Those drones in your example might make an entirely different choice than what you anticipated when you let them take off.
Well, or just the possibility of future-proofing the agreement in favor of the US government, as well as walking back the slippery slope of „no autonomic lethality” and „no mass surveillance”.
The former, grants the Congress the ability to change the definition of all „lawful use” as democratically mandated (if the war is officially declared, if the martial law is officially declared).
The latter, is subtle. There can exist a human responsibility for lethal actions taken by fully autonomous AI - the individual who deploys it, for instance, can be made responsible for the consequences even if each individual „pulling of a trigger” has no human in the loop (Dario’s PoV unacceptable).
Similarly, and less subtly, acceptance of foreign mass surveillance, domestic surveillance (as long as its lawful and not meeting the unlawful mass surveillance limits!) seems to be more in the Pentagon’s favor.
Whether we like it or not, we’re heading into some very unstable time. Anthropic wanted to anchor its performance to stable (maybe stale) social norms, Pentagon wanted to rely on AI provider even as we change those norms.
Not the person you're replying to, and I may be wrong about this, but Amazon?
Jeff's original vision was "relentless customer focus" and ...
actually on second thought I'm seeing the argument 'Amazon stopped caring about customers and is in full enshittification mode at this point'.
But maybe Amazon circa ~2010/2015, or Google around 2010 was still pretty close to the original vision of customer service/organizing the world's information.
Or Apple? They're still making nice computers, although not sure they count as VC backed.
Well Google‘s vision was to catalog all the world’s data
Apple wanted to make personal computing stable - they were absolutely VC backed
I suppose the original question is vague enough that it could always encompass everything which is founders vision even if the vision changes so it’s like OK well then then there’s nothing really to say that you’re stable too it’s just some whatever the function of the person who started the organization is and even that you could debate
FWIW, I don’t actually know if board of Anthropic has actual power to replace its CEO or if Dario has retained some form of personal super-control shares Zuckerberg style.
At some level of growth, the dynamics between competent founders and shareholders flip. Even if the board could afford to replace a CEO, it might not be worth it.
I'd counter that at this level of capital, if the CEO doesn't well align with the capital, then super-control shares will be overpowered by super-lawyers and if there is need some super-donations. OpenAI was a public interest company...
Not at all. Especially at that level of capital. It’s the equity equivalent of „if you owe a bank a million dollars, you’re in trouble. If you owe a bank a billion dollars, the bank is in trouble”.
Capital is extremely fungible. Typically extremely overleveraged. Lawyers are on the other hand extremely overprotective. They won’t generally risk the destruction of capital, even in slam-dunk cases. Vide WeWork.
Anthropic has an odd voting structure. While the CEO Dario Amodei holds no super-voting shares, there are special shares controlled by a separate council of trustees who aren't answerable to investors and who have the power to replace the Board. So in practice it comes down to personal relationships.
Except they did with Wine, in a way. They got to the point where sufficient number of third party software developers target the common base between Wine and Windows (Steam/Proton), electing to have broader compatibility rather than catching all the newest Windows-only APIs.
I wonder how much similar behavior influence other buying choices. I’ve been eyeing an upgrade from M1 for a while - so far punting on it, mostly because of Asahi.
I guess I wasn't aware that Wine pivoted from trying to be a general purpose, drop-in replacement for Windows to being a platform for games that only supports a subset of Windows functionality.
It's much more difficult to keep current and support the full functionality of a much larger competitor's offering when you have to support everything. In my experience it was an all or nothing proposition. Either you emulated it 100% or you had nothing. I think Asahi is more in this realm maybe than Wine. It really needs to support all the hardware, 100%, or it's value is greatly diminished.
> I guess I wasn't aware that Wine pivoted from trying to be a general purpose, drop-in replacement for Windows to being a platform for games that only supports a subset of Windows functionality.
Or „just enough” for the subset of users that is „enough” to ensure product viability. The absolutism of „all or nothing” is rooted in the strictly-better mentality for replacing something.
For Wine/Proton, the core demographic is essentially gamers, who tend to overlap heavily with engineering population later on, and thus core population for Microsoft to capture and retain. Once Steam removed that vendor lock-in, the corporate discussion became more flexible.
For Asahi (proud Asahi user for 4y now), the added value of „most powerful Linux/Arm64 laptop on the market” outweighs the few things that don’t work on Asahi (HDMI out is probably the only one that occasionally matters for me, but screencasting works well enough). Yes, there are gaps, but they are smaller than things from Linux that are missing on OSX or Windows for me.
There was a PR for Adobe products a few weeks ago (https://github.com/ValveSoftware/wine/pull/310), though it seems like they're redirecting it to the main Wine repo now since it makes more sense there
I think people (especially those who joined the internet after the .com bubble) underestimate the level of decentralization and federation coming with the old-school (pre web-centric mainframe-like client mentality) protocols such as email and Usenet and maybe even IRC.
Give me “email” PR process anytime. Can review on a flight. Offline. Distraction free. On my federated email server and have it work with your federated email server.
And the clients were pretty decent, at running locally. And it still works great for established projects like Linux Kernel etc.
It’s just pain to set up for a new project, compared to pushing to some forge. But not impossible. Return the intentionality of email. With powerful clients doing threading, sorting, syncing etc, locally.
I'm older than the web. I worked on projects using CVS, SVN, mercurial, git-and-email, git-with-shared-repository, and git-with-forges. I'll take forges every time, and it isn't even close. It's not a matter of not having done it the old way, it's a matter of not wanting to do it again.
I guess we might have opposite experiences. Part of which I understand - the society moved on, the modern ways are more mature and developed… but I wonder how much of that can be backported without handing over to the centralized systems again.
The advantage of old-school was partially that the user agents, were in fact user agents. Greasemonkey tried to bridge the gap a bit, but the Web does not lend itself to much user-side customization, the protocol is too low level, too generic, offering a lot of creative space to website creators, but making it harder to customize those creations to user’s wants.
I'm older than the trees, but, younger than the mountains! Email all day, all the way. Young people are very fascinated and impressed by how much more I can achieve, faster, with email, compared with their chats, web 3.0 web interfaces, and other crap.
Yes, it takes time to learn, but that is true for anything worthwhile.
What I like about git-and-email-patches is the barrier to entry.
I think it's dwm that explicitly advertises a small and elitist userbase as a feature/design goal. I feel like mailing lists as a workflow serve a similar purpose, even if unintentionally.
With the advent of AI slop as pull request I think I'm gravitating to platforms with a higher barrier to entry, not lower.
Another reason why I think it failed (TIL Yann LeCun was the coauthor) is the connotation with the pirate books/articles community.
When I came across this format in college days, when handling lots of scanned material, it always triggered the mental “don’t install suspicious software” block. Which is a shame as the article points out it was the superior format.
The better question is the seek latency. The bandwidth for read isn’t too horrible, if the seeks can be kept within reason. This is somewhere between tapes and actual pressed optical media (not dyed /re/writeable). Should seek way faster than tape (maybe even on par with BluRay) and 30Mbps read is manageable for doomsday scenarios.
Long term databanks. Libraries. GitHub’s archive bunkers. Microfilm replacements.
at theoretical perspective, if the X-Y plane can be addressed with 16-bit DAC by controlling laser deflection. then to seek any data with in a 4GB address space will have typical latency of 300us with the latest laser scanning technology.
I am not aware any laser scanning technology that can do 16-bit accuracy that has no moving part. so, fundamentally, this is a storage technology with mechanical addressing.
laser can be scanned by acoustic wave, but that itself lack the beam pointing accuracy. the ultrasonic drive frequency will limit how fast is can deflects the laser beam.
The industry is broken. It's broken in the same sense the railroad industry is broken. It has reached the point of abundance, where we're doing things that don't need doing. That won't get done in an efficient market. But since we're not in an efficient market, there are globs of capital thrown at people building stuff that.. doesn't stand a chance of actually making any return on capital.
But while it lasts, us, the glorified machine-minders (just like railroad engineers, well, minded the engines), get paid large lumps of money, through large hordes of managers, arguing on minutia of conversion optimization, and fundamentally, being paid enough to not to try and do something else, perhaps competitive.
And that is broken. Especially for the "smarter of us" - the graduation ceremony of my physics department rings true - we've trained you to discover the secrets of universe and reach the stars, and most of us will use it.. to gain an edge at Lehman Brothers.
(And I think the root of this problem, is the abundance of low-risk capital, from people who expect a small return and a pension that lasts for decades in retirement)
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