Like I said last week. I think zucks original llama thesis is proving more correct by the week. The rent market on intelligence never materialized, if you have THE frontier model, you can charge rent (for a few weeks, maybe month). But after a certain capability level it's price that drives the decision.
Zuck is doing the thing he's really good at, and building a moat around the network (Muse is VERY sticky), and now that we're all going to standardize on Meta's model, we're going to optimize the heck out of the infra to run the model making it cheaper for him to scale, thus bringing in more participants to his network, and thus making his network more valuable.
Google, Apple, and Microsoft are each in a stronger position to win consumer AI because they're guardians over the foundations of the user's experience. Meta always has to wonder whether they're going to be edged out, like when Apple decided to limit permissions or set new rules on user data handling.
How has Meta responded? With a failed phone and speculative headset.
That's entirely why Zuck's been pushing VR and the metaverse for so long. they have no OS to control - Microsoft has desktop, Apple has their vertically integrated devices, Google has both Android and also Chrome.
Meta is at the whims of these other companies to play nice - and they already got hit hard once by apple when they decided to anonimize add profiles on the iphone and go privacy first.
Okay, so I've heard Apple "prioritized their own ads". If there's meat behind that - cool (and perhaps might not do anything about certain scummy listings on the app store)
But app stores and iOS ostensibly exist exactly so Zuckerberg can't do what he does, which is steal credentials. Facebook syncs everything, bought Whatsapp to do the same; of course he's pissed off his ill-gotten moat got attacked
iOS can stop applications from stealing credentials without relying on the App Store. macOS does it, Apple should be encouraged to secure the iOS runtime more than the iOS store.
Until Opus 5.5 I agreed with this. But since then... I'm now able to build just about anything I want, quickly. Including... all the reasons I'm on a mac (or presumably, one on windows) in the first place. IDK if I believe in my heart just yet, but as a long time mac user, if you gave me the choice between mac + commodity model or a near naked Linux laptop + Opus 5.5, I would easily choose Opus 5.5 and build what I want. If this is real, I think Google is still in a good spot, but are Apple and Microsoft? They have no models themselves. They do have hardware but the value of their OS (in Apples case) and software (in MS case) becomes extremely devalued, relatively speaking.
Have they fully implemented the Gemini-backed Siri?
I will say that I asked Siri some questions recently that I was pretty sure it would fumble and it answered directly.
“Does brown go with charcoal in clothing?”, for example, didn’t fall back to “I’ve found some web results. I can send them to your iPhone”. It actually answered.
It still has random nonsense regularly, but the “ask a question, get an actual answer” is new to me.
Apple didn’t figure out yet that Google’s AI performance is nothing like Google search. Google’s AI is just junk, worse than open Chinese models. If someone (Facebook,OpenAI) gets a hold on the “killer” app, Apple won’t be able to do anything to truly compete. They will be late and end up with a social network like “find my friends” or whatever that useless thing was that nobody used.
>Google, Apple, and Microsoft are each in a stronger position to win consumer AI
Microsoft has completely lost the ability to make good software; see Microsoft Teams and what they've done to Windows 11. Apple don't have a foundation models team so they're limited to using other people's models, which handicaps them as they can't do vertical integration like with their other products. Google hasn't made a single competitive consumer product in the past decade, but has certainly killed a few.
> Microsoft has completely lost the ability to make good software
did they ever? maybe MS DOS, Win 3.1, and Win2000 were ok, although PC DOS and OS/2 were better; Sure what an unusable junk it's today is beyond any precedent in history, but why many companies use it today at all? why?
You are in a bubble/biased.
I've switched to Linux on desktop half a year ago. For the average user, Linux has as many issues as Windows (or as few, more precisely).
In Windows, things mostly worked, with some minor annoyances. For example, night light stopped working at some point. Forced reboots for updates are another things I really don't like. SMB file sharing still does not work well out of the box, esp. w. Android phones.
In Linux, it is kinda the same, with the exception that I had a few really bad cases when GUI stopped working at all (terminal worked still, but barely).
My Lenovo laptop officially supports Linux. Still.
Things that I had lately (And I don't remember half of it)
1. BT headset disconnecting after a few seconds of connecting.
2. BT Game controller not detected by PC sometimes.
3. Application installs are weird and not that convenient. Sometimes you use package manager, sometimes AppImage, sometimes flatpak, sometimes brew, sometimes source code, sometimes zipped binary.
4. KDE vaults cannot be closed, because KDE indexing service locks dirs/files inside them.
5. KDE Indexing service indexes stuff that needs not to be indexed, hogging SSD resources and killing its lifespan.
6. KDE built-in screenshot app does not have good good annotation shortcuts, and annotation tools could be better.
7. Multi-monitor support have minor issues out of the box. Either display is garbled when laptop comes out of the sleep, or it does not support DisplayLink out of the box, or something else.
8. Graphics hardware acceleration in Firefox sometimes works, sometimes does not. Lately it does work, which is nice.
9. Game had a bug when it was choosing wrong GPU. No system configuration option was helping at all. Like literally nothing. Only disabling embedded GPU in Bios did.
10. Hibernation menu item exists, but does not work, coming out of hibernation is broken.
11. If you use hard links and directory bind mounts a lot, you will soon find that these are declared as working, but half of the software breaks when encountering them.
12. Laptop performance profiles selected from tray kinda work, but not reliably. I have to use laptop Fn button shortcut for them.
13. When I tried to change some stuff in keyboard layouts for non-english language, I encountered some weird behaviors/bugs. It took me a lot of time to properly configure CapsLock as a keyboard layout switch. On Windows, it is not possible as a built-in feature. With 3rd party - one tiny 20kb app.
14. While audio works mostly very well, sometimes, with a lot of audio devices, they glitch a little.
15. Bluetooth devices take a long time to display in connection list.
16. BT mouse takes 5 seconds to wake from sleep.
17. For me, fonts looks slightly worse then on Windows. I tried a lot of options, but I prefer Windows ClearType default look on my FullHD monitor.
18. Dolphin file manager has quite a lot weird/inconvenient behaviors. How it allows to work under root permissions (weirdly), how it handles absent network drives and some others.
"Microsoft has completely lost the ability to make good software; see Microsoft Teams and what they've done to Windows 11."
Uh, what is your positive comparison point?
I have been using MS apps since MS-DOS 6.0 and Windows 3.1 (including doozies like Windows Millennium and Vista) and Teams and W11 are some of most stable, "it just works" pieces of software coming from them I can think of...
Apple should have morphed Siri into a Muse-like experience a year ago. But they didn't. Muse is great and millions of people are already getting used to having it be a part of their daily lives.
Muse, the pi/openclaw/AI assistant app is maybe not impressive to HN, because you can always just "get an FTP account", as it were, but if you're outside of the HN bubble and don't hate Facebook, Muse is an absolute winner. It's currently the top downloaded app on iOS, above ChatGPT, TikTok, and Claude. I think they've currently got the strongest consumer AI play but we'll have to wait and see how the situation evolves.
>Google, Apple, and Microsoft are each in a stronger position to win consumer AI because they're guardians over the foundations of the user's experience.
From everything I've seen, they're all too large and dysfunctional to make a competent play in consumer AI. Anyone in there trying to work on it is too far removed from end product and is answering to too many masters.
Seriously. Muse hasn't even been around long enough to determine if it is "sticky" in any meaningful way, let alone in the context of competing against frontier models from competitors.
And based on what I'm seeing, it's far from even being in that category as a service yet. Seems like the OP is conflating seeing a bunch of Muse ads on Facebook with its presence as a competing frontier model.
The ads strike me as basically deceptive. Like when I was in NYC last week the ads showing a cuddly mascot were all over the place. Video ads on YouTube don’t show a Bay Area TurboKnerd geeking out with a top-of-the-line Mac mini to a reskinned OpenClaw (reality) but rather some guy running and talking to his phone to schedule a massage.
I like the image of Muse and think a product that delivers what it promises to the consumer could be a hit but,,, this looks like something they rolled out in a hurry to take advantage of the FOMO of the uninformed and boost their stock price for a few months until reality catches up. They are a huge company and they could do something only a big company could do but no…
Like the real mass market product is not going to be a smart shell for a Mac it’s going to be cloud based. Like is it economic for your Mac to be sitting there running all the time when you are using 10%? The true believer say yes, the mass market says no. Is Apple going to let them put a skin on your Mac or is this a product that Apple will embrace and extinguish?
The naming is a bit confusing, but there are two things called Muse ...
There are the models, such as Muse Spark, Muse Wonder, and this Muse Open.
There there is "Muse" itself which is a cloud based "personal agent", always running in your own cloud-based virtual machine, that you can assign tasks to.
I think the Muse agent (which competes with Instinct, Grok Bot, etc) is where Meta currently believe the money will be. While you can pay for higher usage levels, it seems they are expecting many people to use the free tier, and they will make money by charging transaction fees to services Muse uses/orders (e.g. travel, entertainment) on your behalf. This "personal agent" market is predicted (but let's see) to be huge - much larger than the coding agent market.
I assume the guy in the ad is talking to his Muse agent to schedule the massage.
I disagree with the claim that its sticky, but this is the wrong response. Reductive and doesn't take into account the obvious things (UX, network effects, barrier to entry to use the product). All 3 of these are much better with Muse than they with are similar products.
UX is not a moat, especially in the era of AI software replication. I disagree that there are network effects for MUSE, maybe there will be at some point (e.g. vendors or something sign up for it) but I would love to hear why its better to be on muse when more people use it? Barrier to entry is somewhere they have an advantage, but not more of an advantage than google, or really anyone who has an app installed on your phone already.
definitely not me; I wouldn't doubt if Zster is working on turning muse into sleeper agents, _assuming_ chinese models will do the same, so they crib data and send it home like a good little maleware model.
In fact, we're going to see an explosion of the worst kind of AI model thanks to thinks mr Z thinks is in his best interest.
Remember, they had reports going back more than a decade about how they're harming children and destabilizing entire countries and as soon as Trumps in the whitehouse, they're licking boot.
If you’re falling for “sticky” interfaces, you’re not going make it. Your competitor won’t have the stickiness and the ability to use any harness and that will overcome Muse in the long-run. Let’s not forget, Muse is a close to SOTA model right now, but so was Google, and now they’re irrelevant. Google is one of many funded models that were close to SOTA, but we realized it’s benchmaxxed.
People are going to say that it doesn’t matter if you’re the best. If Muse, Grokbot, and Dot are able to reach mass appeal, it doesn’t matter if a person using a custom harness is better.
I respectfully disagree. There is a big difference between someone that’s running a custom harness that’s almost like a personal OS versus someone using something out of the box. And if you’re for using this to run your business, think for yourself who’s going to win, the person customizing everything or the one using what the big corps give you.
I’m talking from experience. I’m run a software factory building open source alternatives and Argon is the worst model. Wrecked multiple codebases. But every use case is different. If you’ve found success in yours, use it.
These are good points, though OP did specifically say that Meta is going to win "consumer" AI. I don't think the average consumer of AI is going to ever have to think about harnesses or worry about SOTA, they really will continue to interact with whatever is stickiest.
This exactly. The "harness" for consumer is not well defined but likely quite sticky if someone can build one. Meta is better positioned with its reach of whatsapp etc unlike anyone to try this.
Meta being meta, will likely run this as an "experiment mode" for 6 months to an year and if it does not work scrap it all and move onto the next thing.
There is a risk ofc muse does not work. But there is a good chance that with the ridiculous number of product teams doing A/B testing with insane number of people already on it, something will emerge that is interesting in a way it never could for their erstwhile Ar/VR foray.
The field is changing weekly at this point. Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic have the most distribution right now so any can take this spot.
So why would you lock yourself in? They want you to lock yourself in, but if you build your own system, you won’t be. A layman will just use what’s best and get himself locked in, but they might be using an inferior model.
AI is a force multiplier. Doing the right thing with the right expertise is yielding dividends.
Many people don't even know what locking in means. The crowd in this forum < 1% of the world do, you and I do, and maybe a few outside. There are only laymen outside of 99%. No one i know of knows or uses a harness. They don't know the large number of VMs built on say Hermes. They really don't care or have time. If you give them a ready made product thats a click away, and its good enough, they will use it.
>For a Linux user, you can already build such a system yourself quite trivially by getting an FTP account, mounting it locally with curlftpfs, and then using SVN or CVS on the mounted filesystem. From Windows or Mac, this FTP account could be accessed through built-in software.
But this is what I’m saying, consumer AI is forever changing. Investing your time and money into a closed harness will put you behind someone running their own system that’s model agnostic.
If you’re on a forum like HN, would you realisticly invest your time and widgets into a closed harness instead of building your own? What if Meta’s model falls behind and all your things are on there? My advice is to invest in building your own because no one lab has shown they are worth using.
As far as “consumer,” I’m simply comparing consumer AI to a custom built one. One of OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta will probably win since they have the most distribution.
And, "stickiest", mind, where most are allready soul-sucked into the neverending doomscrolling dopamine nightmare that is Zuckbook - to beging with.-
First they "captured", or moated "communication". Now, they are going to capture "utility" ("I am actually doing something useful, not just doomscrolling. I can spend an extra 8h here. It feels good").-
> And if you’re for using this to run your business, think for yourself who’s going to win...
That's not consumer AI though. The whole "vs out of the box" is pretty much the definition of consumer AI. People don't want to fiddle with things. That's why UX matters. SOTA only matters in consumer if it translates to the UX. And no one has landed that yet. Many are working on it.
When I worked at Microsoft, I learned that the average user will fail to do ANY process that is longer than 2 steps. Let that sink in and then reread your comment. Nobody cares about SOTA outside of tech. They want the basic floor of “it does what I need at a reasonable price” that’s it.
I think any personal AI agent at this point is "very sticky", not just Muse. You really aren't going to switch when a lot of the value is in the agent memory and there's no easy way to export that, similarly to how you aren't going to switch away from Spotify when it's learned all your song preferences which you can't export. Right now, maybe the agent memory is small enough that if you ask the agent to export you'll get most of it out (Claude has notably made official export instructions to encourage switching from ChatGPT in the past), but in the future the memory will be too large and complex to do that effectively, and platforms could also block the memory export or degrade it deliberately.
So, in the long run you pretty much have to pick one personal agent and stick with it, and switching is costly (unless you are using an open agent that lets you just download the memory, in which case it actually becomes cheap, because AI agents make other parts of switching way easier in general). For the purposes of Meta this means whatever user they get they'll probably keep.
HOWEVER, the thing that Muse doesn't have is network effects. They're running into the exact same problem as ChatGPT in this area, IMO. There's no reason for you to be running specifically Muse even if all of your friends are running it. So that gives other vendors a chance to catch up.
You can export all your data from OpenAI and Anthropic. I also exported all of my Liked songs on Spotify and have a scheduled task to pull any new ones each day.
I don’t follow why “in the future the memory will be too large and complex to [export] effectively”.
to me, export should be easier and easier since you should just be able to ask the model for the memory files. it’s literally list text on a hard disk, even if there are some new formats in the future, they’ll just be files on a disk that another agent can then inspect and integrate. in fact, i think exporting data from services will become easier and easier since agents can do the work even if platforms try to block it.
> a lot of the value is in the agent memory and there's no easy way to export that,
Can't speak for muse and grok bot. But all other agents like openclaw, Hermes simply store then add files and it's trivial to migrate to another agent. Just point the agent to it
I disagree. Google is doing a phenomenal job at capturing use cases at the edge, right where "normie" consumers live. Google's models absolutely suck at coding but if you haven't tried Google Transcribe, you should.
Google has also, far larger distribution and stickiness than Meta.
Bold statement. I wouldn’t count anyone as a winner on consumer market at this point.
I think the weight of people who dislike Meta is going to be a problem - that and forcing to give a lot of information just to use it is problematic for adoption.
> The rent market on intelligence never materialized
So where is the ~$100B combined revenue for OpenAI and Anthropic coming from? Open weights models have been close enough to the frontier for over a year now, probably longer, yet the $$ shows no sign of shifting.
OpenaAI and Anthropic models are priced quite competitively with open ones, they even cut prices by quite a bit since spring. So it's not too surprising that their revenue is pretty high, the question is whether the competition and downward price pressure from open model providers combined with their extremely high R&D spending is sustainable.
Also honestly, the models don't have to get much smarter to handle the consumer side of things. They could innovate a ton on the harness to farm out requests and manage the state of the agent. They have an incentive to do this to reduce the infra usage so they can go wider with the agent.
last year was google winning AI, this year is meta winning AI. I think what is true is Meta, Google will all find their place in the AI world and continue to make huge amount of money. A consumer will use many different AI products, each with a different use case. Everyone will make enough money to live well.
I'm looking forward to seeing Muse devices like Amazon's devices but with superintelligence:
- Muse-equivalent of Alexa
- Muse-equivalent of Ring security devices: doorbells, cameras, alarms, etc
- Muse home automation devices (lights on/off, smart roller, smoke detector, water detecto, etc)
- Muse ring
...
Sure, just not nearly enough for sustainability I think. I'd reserve that call for the moment we can stop bathing in free VC money by using subscriptions.
Also, as far as my own use goes, I found that the capabilities/price ratio of DeepSeek's offering is very hard to beat. It's really good enough so the thing that matters to me (besides table stakes like uptime, latency, etc.) is price at this point.
Of course they are “profitable”, Dario said so last month (if you accept a definition of “profitability” under which every tech startup is profitable by the day they have their first paying customer).
How about the fact that they're not shouting from the rooftops how they're managing to make money in an industry that is currently mostly known as a giant money fire? Instead they're reporting being profitable "after making certain adjustments", which sounds a lot like "not profitable".
> they're reporting being profitable "after making certain adjustments", which sounds a lot like "not profitable"
Adjusting out stock-based compensation and non-cash expenses is absolutely fine for a company growing at the rate Anthropic is. The concern is more that they cherry picked a couple months when their expenses were abnormally low [1].
They seem to be reporting gross margin by excluding the cut that cloud providers take for hosting their models, and excluding R&D.
Basically they seem to be taking credit for the whole amount that customers are paying cloud providers to run Anthropic models, rather than the actual net proceeds of that business to Anthropic.
> They seem to be reporting gross margin by excluding the cut that cloud providers take for hosting their models, and excluding R&D
The media is overstating what they're being leaked.
Anthropic is reporting traditional losses. It's also highlighting that operating figure, because it answers the question around what the business could look like in a steady-state and first-party-only mode.
They aren't claiming the profitable right now. But for an unprofitable company, having these sorts of metrics can give you a sense around when they will become profitable and what it will take. (Plenty of people were doubting that AI makes money on inference not too long ago.)
I've used it in a bunch of places, but my favorite use. I have an app (https://plonkit.app/) i'm the only user... because i built it for myself. In the app I have a shopping list feature. When you add an item it auto assigns it to the right shopping list. It's a very simple feature, but with Jev, it's quick, and it stayed simple.
I disagree actually, I think zucks original llama thesis is proving more correct by the week. The rent market on intelligence never materialized, and will not materialize.
In software, we've all become accustomed to the idea that the way you make money is by building little blocks of intellectual capital, then charging rent on it. That made sense when developing intellectual capital was a rare and valuable skill/asset and the thing you build was a rare and valuable asset. But now both are not rare. You can still charge rent, but the market is highly competitive, so prices match that.
Durable rents will end up going to those who owns the scarce assets, zuck is building those as we speak.
Dropping open weights will build an ecosystem that makes his valuable assets more valuable.
Of course you need talent but supply seems reasonably high. We have openAI, anthropic, xAI, meta, Xiaomi, deepseek, Alibaba, z.ai, Mistral, reflection, and Google all producing exceptional models.
The biggest differentiating factor seems to be compute. I know most Chinese labs would really like more compute. Google and xAI too, but largely because they sold compute to their competitors.
Yeah, people like to poop on the pelican. But pelican quality still correlated with overall model capabilities reasonably well, and you can immediately see and interpret it. It's a running gag, but it also does have some actual value.
I've been using GPT-6 Luna in some capacity for nearly all my agent workflows. It's just a really good model, and the pricing is cheap. If Haiku 5.5 is better, and the same price (under 100k context... which is a big caveat) i'd probably swap it.
It’s absolutely better than Luna. It feels closer to a “sonnet 5.2” if that makes sense.
Of course it’s not as big, and hence falls-off quicker. I’d consider the 100k a “promotional price” to match Luna’s token pricing while delivering noticeably more intelligence.
They're trying to pull digitally what they already pulled physically. The reason we can't manufacture a grill brush for a reasonable price is the result of years of Americans choosing the cheapest price. We gave up our manufacture base. They want us to give up our labs.
Deindustrializing a country is not something consumers can achieve. It starts at the top level, with politicians who construct a financial system where it's more profitable to speculate than to build or invest in real businesses.
> The reason we can't manufacture a grill brush for a reasonable price is the result of years of Americans choosing the cheapest price.
No, it's the result of US leadership letting this happen. This is clear since China themselves would not let this happen. US leadership did nothing because they were best friends with the people who did it, and did not care one bit about their population.
I mean, when I upgraded my pipeline from terra to sol saying "it's the same price basically!" I was excited. Probably would not have felt as excited if it was just a version bump.
Not sure that's why they did it. But that was my experience.
