I am not so sure that's true. Even if AI intelligence were to plateau at today's levels, there are still many gains to be had in speeding up today's intelligences. ASICs with burned in weights could become economical to invest in as they would retain usefulness longer than 18 months, and I feel we have only scratched the surface on possible usecases of local AI and what it means for almost any technology product or interface.
I was just thinking about the good old days combining human judgements on mturk for classifying high-value forum threads. Since replaced by using judgements from multiple LLMs.
The only use I can think of it these days is for social scientists who need to gather judgements from bona fide humans.
This will be devastating for a lot of workers in low-infrastructure countries.
They're sweating it big time, and their fear is bleeding through their AI beneficence-speak. Time for the big US AI companies to call in some favors from the administration. But you can't unring a bell.
So much in AI is dependent on which of these two outcomes occur.