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Considering our intelligence stems from our ability to use bayesian inference and generative probabilities to predict future states, are we even limited by brain size and not a lack of new experiences?

The majority of people spend their time working repetitive jobs during times when their cognitive capacity is most readily available. We're probably very very far from hitting limits with our current brain sizes in our lifetimes.

If anything, smaller brains may promote early generalization over memorization.


> Considering our intelligence stems from our ability to use bayesian inference and generative probabilities to predict future states...

Sounds like a pretty big assumption.


It's the Bayesian Brain Hypothesis and Predictive Coding, both thoroughly researched theories that line up with empirical evidence. [1]

[1] https://www.cell.com/trends/neurosciences/abstract/S0166-223...


It's a popular view but it's massively controversial and far from being a consensus view. See here for a good overview of some of the problems with it.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22545686/

(You should be able to find the PDF easily on scihub or something)


The article raises good points, but I feel it misses the bigger picture.

Every generation has some people more interested in the depth of their field than others. So why do we see fewer of the actual experts?

Well, we don't, we just see more of the surface level developers being able to contribute real economic value to society. They were just kept out by the more demanding requirements before.

If anything, it's a good sign we've come to have this luxury problem.


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