So, who is considering what alternatives? We are using GitLab only for git ui, as I put a stop to using it any deeper due to a questionable open-core model.
Agree, it seems that the business model change of going from DVD by mail to streaming are much more profound, than what is usually discussed. With everyone going into streaming, it looks like at least in short-term perspective we are moving to a cable network of streaming channels, with 4-5 networks being owned by a single household that wants to see all that's good out there.
Netflix is incompletely understood by most people because it's growth unfolded over a long time and it went through a few sharp pivots.
DVD-by-mail is gangster in terms of intellectual property, but the studios could do nothing about it (e.g. it is like a book)
What Netflix gets for it is a huge and loyal customer base.
The studios are then willing to license the streaming rights because they get more that way then they get in DVD-by-mail.
Netflix is busy making streaming delivery work.
As the scale changes Netflix goes from rent to buy, from David to Goliath. So far Reed Hastings has been thinking a step ahead of others in the industry at each juncture.
4. Another dimension is how many stars the movie got, or in Netflix's case - number of thumbs up and thumbs down. Not sure how many people vote that way, but ideally it will be something like an IMDB score. I am quite prepared to give a try to what most people consider really good, but IMBD score is 0-10, while thumbs up is much more ambiguous and it probably works against movie buffs, who will thumb up only the best, but will be drowned in tastes of the average person. A movie that was voted higher than 8 on IMDB by a lot of people is highly likely a good movie that should be watched, regardless of genre, language, etc. The only problem IMDB has right now is a mass of Indian and Turkish voters (not sure if it's bots or just a flashmob crowd) that got quite a lot of their movies in the IMDB top. However, Netflix does not have this dimension at all. Movies that were highly rated by critics or curated lists also don't show up and so the judgement goes towards a common denominator, instead of receiving a bump from critics.
5. Finally, an issue that becomes apparent after some time, is just a really tiny library of movie content. If the info on the Internet is correct, there are no more than 5-10k movies in the Netflix library, this is nothing compared to how many movies are out there. Whole genres are not represented, where are the hardboiled Hong Kong action, foreign Sci-Fi, classic oldies, etc. It is not a direct problem of Netflix recommendation engine, but a limitation still. Again, if I compare Spotify and Netflix coverage, Spotify fares much better, with no more than 10% of artists that I listed to no listed. Of course, Netflix tries to switch everyone to watching just more of their own content which they can distribute without issues or additional cost worldwide. But if the market becomes fragmented, the movie discovery function diminishes in value.
Having worked in enterprise field for quite some time, I feel that all consumer-startup driven innovation in terms of ease of use, UX, drastic decrease in cost, etc. only recently has been trickling down to enterprise, which has a much higher inertia and barriers to entry.
The CIOs are now much more open to new products than before even in very traditional and conservative industries, while the leading existing technology providers are not in a much better position to offer a new product, as they would be starting from scratch because of huge technological advances and a shift in development practices, all thanks to consumer startups.
Given a backing from an A-list player provides the needed boost in initial traction for enterprise startups, basically a "rolodex" of previous acquisitions and a network of CIOs, if an idea has a market, the failure rate can be kept at a minimum.
The only thing I don't understand is how an exit strategy looks like, as it seems only logical that there should be a monster or two on the enterprise market (Microsoft and Oracle of the 21 century), who should either acquire those products that succeeded or develop their own alternatives. So I'm pretty sure that in 5 years time the great consolidation is coming and it will become more difficult to develop a business out of a product idea.
On your final point, I think that's certainly possible. At least that's the historical cycle. There are actually a bunch of plausible acquirers at scale -- of the new companies Salesforce and Workday are certainly candidates, and a bunch of the older companies as well -- it will be interesting to see if a new CEO of Microsoft embarks on a major acquisition binge of enterprise cloud companies (perhaps in conjunction with spinning off or killing some of their less-successful consumer efforts).
However, it's also possible this cycle plays out differently, or at least at much larger scale and over much longer. The three big arguments in favor of this are:
* New enterprise cloud/SAAS vendors may be able to sell into much bigger markets than traditional enterprise software -- since there are many more companies that can use online services than could ever install and use enterprise software on premise. In particular, going downmarket is far easier with the new model. Plus, globalization and the developing world could dramatically increase market size. So new entrants may be able to get much larger as independent companies than the last generation.
* New enterprise/SAAS vendors may exist in many more categories than traditional enterprise software. New development/adoption/business models make it reasonable to think about a lot more horizontal and vertical applications and services than old enterprise software was capable of addressing. So maybe new vendors get much larger than anticipated since they can cover a lot more functions and verticals, or alternately maybe there are many more new vendors than we can conceive of now. We are already seeing a trend towards enterprise use of a lot more cloud apps per customer at this point in the cycle than a lot of people expected.
* As a consequence of the prior two, the independent market caps of the new cloud/SAAS vendors may end up being a lot higher than you might anticipate from history. This could really remove the incentive to sell hot new cloud/SAAS vendors as quickly.
I think these are live topics right now, and the answers will determine a lot of what happens in the enterprise startup ecosystem for years to come.
My working theory is that consumer ideas are both art and engineering. The art component either takes in the mind of the consumer or it doesn't. Like movies or music, sort of. Lots of great engineering teams can't get the art to work with high probability, and even the great consumer internet artists swing and miss as often as they hit (eg odeo vs twitter). And if the art doesn't take, the engineering won't save you.
Whereas the enterprise ideas are mostly engineering - or rather the art lies in really understanding the customer and the domain, which is relatively straightforward for the great enterprise entrepreneurs, because they are already so deep in it and you can easily go talk to the customers one at a time and learn what you need to know to predict success or failure with pretty high confidence. Not easier but different.
These are all gross over generalizations of course. I think of this as a framework for thinking - one of many - not a literal description of the truth in all cases. One lens.
I love this quote about art and engineering, music and film. Spot on. So as a startup founder, filmmaker, musician - here's my question: how are you ever gonna get these blockbusters/chart toppers without taking a chance. The biggest film in the U.S. right now (Gravity) is by a Mexican filmmaker who made arty films like Y Tu Mama Tambien and Children of Men - not hollywood stuff. Really breakout, worldchanging, consumer, Apple-style stuff is made by weirdos, punks, poets and freaks. With all the capital A16 has to deploy - why not create a fund for some of the crazy ones?
