I'm not saying it's trivial, or anything close to it. I'm saying that people do it. There are a number of quant firms that are and have been consistently profitable (two sigma, renaissance, etc..).
Two sigma hasn't been all that consistent. First, their main stage for success only began around 2011, after the financial collapse when recovery was well under way. Second, they had a pretty bad 2017. They might not be the best example here. I'm not overly familiar with renaisance to comment on them.
> The owners’ earnings are also driven by Renaissance’s fabled Medallion Fund, which is closed to outsiders. It has earned an estimated annualized return of 35 percent since 1982.
The fact that a coin that comes up heads 75% of the time came up tails one time does not mean its not a biased coin.
Thanks for the renaisance link, interesting firm. I still dont think 2 sigma was a good example for a counter claim though, their primary success has been post-financial collapse. Renaisance on the other hand has consistent performance over the decades though isnt really representative of the field. But I take your point none the less.
