21,000 stranger abductions / 74 million kids under 18 = .000289 = 0.03% chance of being abducted per year
(1-.03%) = 99.97% chance of not being abducted in a given year
.9997^14 = 99.6% chance of not being abducted in 14 straight years (from age 4 through 17, assuming kids under 4 are virtually never left alone).
Thus there is a 0.4% chance of being abducted by a stranger by age 18. Of those <1% suffer injury or death. But about half suffer some form of sexual abuse. The other half are unharmed. So the chance of having a traumatic abduction by the time a child reaches 18 is ~0.2% or 1 out of 500.
(1-.03%) = 99.97% chance of not being abducted in a given year
.9997^14 = 99.6% chance of not being abducted in 14 straight years (from age 4 through 17, assuming kids under 4 are virtually never left alone).
Thus there is a 0.4% chance of being abducted by a stranger by age 18. Of those <1% suffer injury or death. But about half suffer some form of sexual abuse. The other half are unharmed. So the chance of having a traumatic abduction by the time a child reaches 18 is ~0.2% or 1 out of 500.