Gigafactory 3 in China comes online this month. Manufacturing lines are already validated. I’d expect an increased step up in quarterly deliveries going forward. Also, no more Fremont->China ocean shipping delay.
This puts Tesla on track to build and deliver 500k+ vehicles a year next year. This does not include energy storage sales out of GF1 in Nevada.
Tesla's never copied an existing production line either though. The Model S, X, and 3 lines were all novel for Tesla. The Shanghai line should be a copy of the 3 line from Fremont for the most part.
1) I would absolutely not be surprised if they have delays this time as well, but...
2) most organizations find their first production line(s) more difficult to start up than they expected, even in very different fields like brewing beer. But, the more of them they do, the better they tend to get at it. Although...
3) yeah, they'll be late on this one as well. :)
But each time they get faster. This is hold weight if you have a lot of data points but in tesla case they are really young with lots of room of improvement which they've shown
This puts Tesla on track to build and deliver 500k+ vehicles a year next year. This does not include energy storage sales out of GF1 in Nevada.