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Why are they increasing the price of gas (which triggered the protests)?

My understanding is that they are largely embargoed, so shouldn't they have plenty of fuel around, given they are (or were) a major exporter?



Apparently they want to use the additional revenue to help needy families.

> "Many people in oil-producing Iran see cheap gasoline as a national right and price hike sparked worries about a further squeeze on living costs, despite assurances from the Iranian authorities that the revenue raised would be used to help needy families."

Source: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-iran-fuel-protests/irans-f...


>Apparently they want to use the additional revenue to help needy families.

>despite assurances from the Iranian authorities that the revenue raised would be used to help needy families.

I don't see how those two statements are connected at all. Smart people don't even trust statements coming from American politicians, and Iran is a second-world country.


> I don't see how those two statements are connected at all. Smart people don't even trust statements coming from American politicians, and Iran is a second-world country.

It's not like every country that used to be under the USSR's umbrella has untrustworthy politicians. There tends to be more than average, yes, but that's true for the US as well.

Actually, does that include Iran? I think you might mean they're a third-world country.


Original definition of 1st/2nd/3rd world countries was based on sphere of influence, not state of economy.

1st world : US 2nd world : USSR 3rd world : not aligned with either


I wouldn't trust a government that shuts down Internet access in response to protests to do the right thing and help needy families who don't have a voice.

If they do end up helping needy families, it will be at best to secure support for the regime but that's like a best case scenario imo.

If they are increasing prices, I suspect they are violating the embargo and selling oil to other countries.


Iran is by far the most stable and wealthy country among its neighbors, which makes our ability to enforce sanctions on them pretty ineffective. Sure, we can mostly stem the flow of high tech from America and Europe from going in to Iran, but do you think anyone in the 7 countries that border Iran gives a fuck about enforcing US sanctions?


> Iran is by far the most stable and wealthy country among its neighbors, which makes our ability to enforce sanctions on them pretty ineffective

That's entirely false. US sanctions have crushed the Iranian economy, sending inflation skyrocketing and including slashing its oil exports by 85-90%.

Iranian oil exports have gone from 2.7m barrels per day in April 2018 to an optimistic couple hundred thousand now. Reuters reported this Summer that oil exports collapsed to as low as 100,000 barrels per day. So you're saying the US doesn't have an ability to enforce sanctions?

Here's a visual example of it in action (their production figures):

https://i.imgur.com/0NotUaZ.png

The US can immediately crush Iran's most important economic segment via sanctions.

In October the IMF forecast that Iran's economy would contract by 9.5% for 2019, one of the worst economic outcomes in Iran's modern history. The World Bank's figure came to a 8.7% contraction.

The same IMF report says Iran is suffering 35% inflation. The Statistical Center for Iran says it's 47%.

The riots going on in Iran say it's all broadly true.

Iran is also not the most stable or wealthy nation among its neighbors. They're clearly no more wealthy or stable than Saudi Arabia or Turkey (both of which have their own issues). Turkey for example has a real economy not dependent on oil exports and a $10,000 GDP per capita. Iran's GDP per capita is below Iraq at $5,500. Read that again, Iran's economic output per capita is now below Iraq.


Though I don't think it discredits your overall point, as far as I know, the US and Pakistan (which borders Iran) are allies and the US has given tens of billions in aid since 9/11. When you're getting that kind of a money from a foreign country, the tendency seems to be that you keep toeing the line that pleases the hand that feeds.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan%E2%80%93United_States...


Like OBL hiding in their country and the general assumption senior military leaders knew.

I dont doubt Pakistan want to appear to toe the line for their dollars but beyond that I don't think there is a strong alliance to support US agenda.


They had a nice scam going for them though, you have to give them that. Get $$$ to keep "searching for OBL" somewhere in the wilderness, meanwhile they knew exactly where he was.


Pakistan is a frenemy at best. It's more of a "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" situation left over from the cold war.


They spend a fortune on subsidises:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_subsidy_reform_plan

15% of GDP!

Totally sensible to wind this back and allow prices to operate under normal market conditions.

17% of this subsidised fuel is smuggled out of the country anyway.


The only surprise here would be that only 17% of the fuel is smuggled, but there's no way in hell it's that low. Perhaps 17% is smuggled by non-IRGC-connected entities.


At $0.25/gallon, it's not a question of supply but processing and transportation.

If barrels of 87 octane were magically floating in on the tide you could hardly make a profit at that price.


As far as I know, Iran has little gas refining capability, so they must purchase gas from abroad. With the continuing effects of the embargo it's tough for the government to subsidize the low gas price with less cash coming in.


They actually have a pretty good amount, especially for the region.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oil_refineries#Iran


Well, they may export crude, but without refinery capacity they are probably capped at the rate they can produce usable product.




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