As time goes on, things seem to line up with what Michael Levitt has been saying for a while now. Namely, that populations are reaching "saturation" pretty uniformly. And while he hasn't a clue what's causing it - he's ventured a guess at some type of innate immunity.
Back in mid-March:
> In Wuhan, which had the highest number of infection cases in the Hubei province, everyone had a chance of getting infected, but only 3% caught it,” he explained. “Even on the Diamond Princess (the virus-stricken cruise ship), the infection rate did not top 20%.” Based on these statistics, Levitt said, he concluded that many people are just naturally immune to the virus.
In retrospect we know that the Diamond Princess numbers are wrong (the Chinese numbers are likely wrong too). Asymptomatic spread is probably much larger than what we could initially tell.
This study claims half the Diamond Princess infections were undetected - the infection rate was double.
Back in mid-March:
> In Wuhan, which had the highest number of infection cases in the Hubei province, everyone had a chance of getting infected, but only 3% caught it,” he explained. “Even on the Diamond Princess (the virus-stricken cruise ship), the infection rate did not top 20%.” Based on these statistics, Levitt said, he concluded that many people are just naturally immune to the virus.
https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3800632...
In retrospect we know that the Diamond Princess numbers are wrong (the Chinese numbers are likely wrong too). Asymptomatic spread is probably much larger than what we could initially tell.
This study claims half the Diamond Princess infections were undetected - the infection rate was double.
https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/asymp-transmission.ht...