The Wikipedia article [1] leads to [2], a RAINN page which links to
itself (quote: "Please visit
https://www.rainn.org/statistics/criminal-justice-system for full
citation."), and also (Footnote 1) to the following 'three' alleged
data sources [3, 4, 5]. Note that [4, 5] are exactly, letter for
letter, the same (!) in [2]! Why? Does that sound like serious science to you? Anyway, the RAINN page [2] then claims:
"This statistic combines information from several federal government
reports. Because it combines data from studies with different
methodologies, it is an approximation, not a scientific
estimate.". Let's look at the methodology in [3],
starting on Page 17:
> "The NCVS is a self-report survey that is administered from January
to December. Respondents are asked about the number and
characteristics of crimes they have experienced during the prior 6
months [...] . The survey collects information on threatened,
attempted, and completed crimes. Te survey collects data on crimes
both reported and not reported to police. Estimates in this report
include threatened, attempted, and completed crimes."
Of particular interest is the subsection "NCVS measurement of rape or
sexual assault", starting on page 19. I cannot see any meaningful
attempt at scientific rigour here. Can you explain to me why such
figures should be taken seriously? Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence! There is no evidence in any meaningful sense here.
The Wikipedia article [1] leads to [2], a RAINN page which links to itself (quote: "Please visit https://www.rainn.org/statistics/criminal-justice-system for full citation."), and also (Footnote 1) to the following 'three' alleged data sources [3, 4, 5]. Note that [4, 5] are exactly, letter for letter, the same (!) in [2]! Why? Does that sound like serious science to you? Anyway, the RAINN page [2] then claims: "This statistic combines information from several federal government reports. Because it combines data from studies with different methodologies, it is an approximation, not a scientific estimate.". Let's look at the methodology in [3], starting on Page 17:
> "The NCVS is a self-report survey that is administered from January to December. Respondents are asked about the number and characteristics of crimes they have experienced during the prior 6 months [...] . The survey collects information on threatened, attempted, and completed crimes. Te survey collects data on crimes both reported and not reported to police. Estimates in this report include threatened, attempted, and completed crimes."
Of particular interest is the subsection "NCVS measurement of rape or sexual assault", starting on page 19. I cannot see any meaningful attempt at scientific rigour here. Can you explain to me why such figures should be taken seriously? Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence! There is no evidence in any meaningful sense here.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape,_Abuse_%26_Incest_Nationa...
[2] https://www.rainn.org/statistics/criminal-justice-system
[3] Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 2010-2016 (2017).
I think this is https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cv17.pdf
[4] Federal Bureau of Investigation, National Incident-Based Reporting System, 2012-2016 (2017);
[5] Federal Bureau of Investigation, National Incident-Based Reporting System, 2012-2016 (2017);