I disagree, but I respect your opinion. I think the tablet market will ultimately look more like the mp3 player market: Apple has a head start, it's a better platform for developers (in terms of tools and profits/revenue) in general, iTunes lock-in keeps customers loyal to Apple, iPhone/iPad universal apps and app compatibility makes iPhone users even more likely to purchase iPads, many exclusive apps being cross promoted (Infinity Blade, Final Fantasy, HBO GO), and pricing--iPads are still cheaper than comparable tablets.

But I think the most important thing is that Apple has retail stores, whereas phones are sold by the carriers.