Interesting take. I would counter and say that climate over the long run is much easier to predict then in the short run. The localized effects, high variability and shorter term impacts are way more challenging.
I would say that the impact to global weather phenomenons are might not be well understood though that seems more like local (large local like continent wide) impacts as opposed to general global weather trend.
I agree with you, but that was my point, in order to get people to react it's probably more effective to identify more "local" (for a large definition of local) threats. This particular coast is going to be flooded, this particular mountain won't have snow anymore, these particular crops won't be viable anymore, this particular mode of living won't work.
But given the chaotic nature of the climate and complex feedback loops these local predictions seem to be hard to make. You can say that some catastrophic events are going to become more common, but you can't say "the 12th of November 2038 a huge storm is going to ravage this country and cause countless deaths and billions of $ in damages, so let's invest this money now to prevent it from happening".
I would say that the impact to global weather phenomenons are might not be well understood though that seems more like local (large local like continent wide) impacts as opposed to general global weather trend.