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IMO Confluent is trying to rush this IPO. I'd be trying to push for an IPO aggressively with everything that has happened related to Elasticsearch.

It showed a lot in the industry that Elastic didn't have nearly that much to offer than what everyone thought once Amazon stepped into the ring and the same is apparent with Confluent.

The same similar situation seems to be emerging with their managed Kafka service. Once you're on AWS there will be incentive to move to their Firehose platforms.

Very few customers actually should be running a Kafka cluster at all and the bulk of those would be better off running Pulsar to reduce their pipeline storage costs significantly.



Isn’t Kinesis the real competition from AWS? It’s been around for a long time and Amazon pushes it pretty hard. The downside being linear cost scaling, meaning that your sweet spot for pricing is when your volumes are too low to support having your own operations team.


Elastic results and stock today say otherwise.


If I recall the announcement happened in January'ish? They're down since that point but the tech market as a whole is down since January.

It'll up to 3 years for the full affect to be felt because of time for new projects, rewrite, end of life on the ES version that was last open source.

Everyone I know when they read that blog post was like, "Alright, moving forward we're not vendor locking ourselves into the license with Elastic."

On top of this most companies were going with Elastic for the enterprise features but those are now becoming free with AWS's version.


What will be the full affects? And will they be positive or negative?




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