Fed is more likely to target the shape of the yield curve and adjust policy accordingly, so it would be a little backwards to say that based on their forecast pace of selling longer-dated paper and supply, the yield curve will do X.
really, the question is whether a soft landing can be achieved, bringing inflation down without a recession or crisis.
When CPI inflation is 8% before the Russian shock even hits those numbers, that is quite hard to achieve. in soccer, when you have to make a saving tackle in the penalty area, you've already made a mistake.
really, the question is whether a soft landing can be achieved, bringing inflation down without a recession or crisis.
When CPI inflation is 8% before the Russian shock even hits those numbers, that is quite hard to achieve. in soccer, when you have to make a saving tackle in the penalty area, you've already made a mistake.