Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

Counterfactual hypotheses are untestable and are of little interest other than for social banter and light conversation. "If only we had done this, this might have happened..."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterfactual_thinking

Reading the tea leaves and forecasting the future has never been a very successful enterprise, and doing so in hindsight isn't much better. This behavioral tendency was explained by Frank Herbert, among others:

> "Deep in the human unconscious is a pervasive need for a logical universe that makes sense. But the real universe is always one step beyond logic." ― Dune



I think it’s useful to revisit things with the benefit of hindsight to better understand why thinks happened a certain way and how they might have played out differently. But I also completely agree that they offer no proof of alternative outcomes and the exercise should be limited.

Something like the viral adoption of a language for ML has too many complex psychosocial factors for a hot take counterfactual sound bite. And twitter allows for just enough space to stake a claim on some rhetorical ground, not much left to explore the detail required.


That may be the case. But there is also tunnel vision and Planck's principle.

IOW: Ignoring history makes it harder to analyze what's wrong, and why that came to be.

Marching on mindlessly, like a truly indoctrinated, mindless soldier. Because lack of situational awareness, overview.




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: