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An important factor in nuclear proliferation that may or may not be relevant to AI: there are at most half a dozen "lineages" for nuclear weaponry - countries that developed gaseous centrifuges on their own without assistance from an existing nuclear state. By my count they boil down to 1) US, 2) Germany via WWII R&D, 3) UK, 4) Russia, 5) URENCO, 6) South Africa.

None of the most recent entrants to the nuke club did so on their own. China got help from Russia while Pakistan, Iran, and North Korea gained it via Abdul Qadeer Khan's URENCO espionage.

It'll be interesting to see if AI will see the same kind of limitation. If so, then maybe there will be some chance at limiting a catastrophic spread.



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