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Only if the Euro appreciates, which is unlikely in case of a recession.


"Only if"..well yea. And why wouldn't it? I don't know what you're basing your thesis on, it is very common to have currency moves in either direction that massively exceed the differential in US vs Euro rates. Making bets on how it plays out is also a big market, but in that case you're a currency trader...is that the type of risk profile of a non-trader looking for short term fixed income/savings? I doubt it.

One should probably default to making returns in the currency they buy things and pay taxes in unless there's an obvious reason not to. Trying to make an extra ~2% on short term rates seems like picking up nickels in front of a steam roller. Euro is up like 16% from the bottom last summer, and when it trends it can go for a while. Sounds risky.


Or if the USD depreciates, which is much more likely in case of a recession




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