> (1) Lab origin: Covid was discovered close to the WIV, while it was researching gain-of-function on coronaviruses.
COVID-19 was discovered by Chinese scientists because they were studying this virus and were familiar with it, whereas in other countries, this virus was overlooked as a complication of a common cold. Research on virus strains shows that the COVID-19 epidemic began 2-3 months before the epidemic in Wuhan. Therefore, the evidence for the virus's laboratory origin should look like this:
(1) The virus's high adaptability for human transmission indirectly indicates human intervention in its evolution.
(1) Studies indicate that the global spread of the virus started from the World Military Games in Wuhan, indirectly pointing to the involvement of the military or a military laboratory.
(1) Research shows that the virus's spread began two to three months before the start of the epidemic in Wuhan, indirectly suggesting the involvement of the Russian «Vector» laboratory in Novosibirsk, which experienced a serious security incident (explosion and military incursion) during this period.
(2) Zoonotic origin: Covid was discovered in a wet market, where past coronaviruses have been known to evolve and leap to humans.
None of this makes much sense. SARS-CoV-2 was discovered in Wuhan when local doctors noticed the unusual volume of sick and dying patients. The WIV's specialized knowledge wasn't necessary for that. The genome of SARS-CoV-2 was first published not by the WIV but by Professor Zhang Yongzhen at the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Centre:
There's no evidence that the Vector Institute in Novosibirsk had any role in this. SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Wuhan, and the WIV had the world's biggest collection of novel sarbecoviruses sampled from nature, plus an unfunded proposal (DEFUSE) to engineer in a furin cleavage site. The Vector Institute had no significant coronavirology work.
«Vector» is the largest depository of viruses in the world. Of course, «Vector» has SARS CoV in their depository. Nobody knows what they did with it. However, «Vector» was first in Russia which started to perform testing for SARS-CoV-2, so they had experience with some variant of that virus. Moreover, «Vector» started to develop 2 vaccines for Covid-19 almost immediately.
There was epidemic in Russia in November-December 2019 with up to 700 cases per week of pneumonia in some regions (thousands of cases in whole Russia), which is at Covid level.
Quote 1tv.ru, Nov 19 2019:
> Weekly, around 300 cases are recorded in the region. 10 schools have already been placed under quarantine. Earlier, students in the Vladimir, Samara, and Orenburg regions, as well as in Rostov-on-Don, Ulyanovsk, and Krasnoyarsk, went on forced vacations. How can you protect yourself from the disease and what should you do at the first signs of discomfort?
> The number of pneumonia cases is growing across the country. Schools in Chelyabinsk are being closed due to quarantine.
> "This year, considering the rise from the previous year, we are particularly attentive to this infection. When the incidence rate became sufficiently high, we suspended the educational process," said Tatiana Sofiikina, Deputy Head of the Department of Epidemiological Surveillance at the Rospotrebnadzor office for the Chelyabinsk region.
> More such patients have also appeared in Rostov-on-Don. Often, pneumonia develops after the flu or acute respiratory viral infections (ARVI). However, not only viruses cause pneumonia. During the cold season, our lungs become more susceptible, and we easily catch any infection on the go. Moreover, the disease often progresses asymptomatically. A person only feels mild discomfort, unaware that a catastrophe is developing within their body.
That still makes no sense. The original SARS virus from 2002 is too distant genetically from SARS-CoV-2 to derive the latter from the former in any known way; even RaTG13 is far enough that it's not clear whether e.g. accelerated evolution during serial passaging could result in SARS-CoV-2. The coincidence that makes many people suspect a research accident is that:
1. The Wuhan Institute of Virology had a major program to collect novel sarbecoviruses (viruses different from but related to SARS-1) from nature. No other lab in the world was known to have a comparable program. They'd also proposed to create artificial recombinants of those viruses with a furin cleavage site. Such a site is uncommon among related natural viruses, but present in SARS-CoV-2.
2. SARS-CoV-2 was first detected in Wuhan.
The first point does not apply to Vector, or to any other lab outside Wuhan.
Information about blast at «Vector» BSL4 lab is state secret now, I cannot find information about internal situation at «Vector».
My guess: perhaps the virus was being kept alive in living organisms (deliberately or accidentally).
Then the sequence of events looks as follows:
* September 16, 2019 - Explosion of a gas cylinder at the territory of the "Vector" laboratory in Kol'tsevo, Novosibirsk.
* Military personnel arrive to conduct fire inspection (breaking doors in each laboratory room searching for fire traces), without proper biological protection.
* During the fire inspection, the military take away some property from the laboratory (captured on video) and likely get infected with the virus from animal carriers.
* October 11, 2019 - Joint training of Chinese and Russian special police in Kol'tsevo, Novosibirsk, 40 Chinese policemen arrived.
* October 16, 2019 - First report of a sudden increase in cases of atypical pneumonia in Krasnoyarsk Krai, in Siberia - 700 cases per week. («Arguments and Facts on the Yenisei» No. 42, 2019)
* October 18, 2019 - Military World Games begin in Wuhan, attended by servicemen from Russia, from which the virus likely started spreading worldwide.
* November 2019 - Schools are quarantined due to an outbreak of atypical pneumonia in Krasnoyarsk, Rostov-on-Don, Orenburg, and Samara regions.
* November 2019 - Russian armed forces begin «training» to blockade infected regions of Russia.
COVID-19 was discovered by Chinese scientists because they were studying this virus and were familiar with it, whereas in other countries, this virus was overlooked as a complication of a common cold. Research on virus strains shows that the COVID-19 epidemic began 2-3 months before the epidemic in Wuhan. Therefore, the evidence for the virus's laboratory origin should look like this:
(1) The virus's high adaptability for human transmission indirectly indicates human intervention in its evolution.
(1) Studies indicate that the global spread of the virus started from the World Military Games in Wuhan, indirectly pointing to the involvement of the military or a military laboratory.
(1) Research shows that the virus's spread began two to three months before the start of the epidemic in Wuhan, indirectly suggesting the involvement of the Russian «Vector» laboratory in Novosibirsk, which experienced a serious security incident (explosion and military incursion) during this period.
(2) Zoonotic origin: Covid was discovered in a wet market, where past coronaviruses have been known to evolve and leap to humans.