Absolutely no chance that AI is able to do that. Investing decisions are too subjective for the current state of AI. A good value investor knows this… and also knows that you don’t need a bull market to make decent returns.
Or, fewer and fewer people are needed for approximately the same amount of production. This may lead to a further bifurcated society.
I do think that a service-oriented economy has many, many more nooks and crannies to hide non-productive jobs, though, and that could perpetuate the “bullshit job economy” hypothesis.
Fewer people are needed to perform a specific job as we do it today. But there will always be room to improve the products and services we produce and to make them cheaper.
Consider the steam-locomotive. It was a great invention but we didn't stop there now we have bullet-trains and hyperloops.
There is also plenty of room at the bottom as famously noted by Feynman I think. We can make products smaller to make them easier to carry around. New cheaper price points create new demand and new markets.
Also as economies improve, people will have fewer children, because they don't need them to take care of themselves at old age. So it's not like we will have too many people having nothing to do.
On the contrary I think AI can be the great equalizer: Rather than having fewer people who know how to do things, we will have more people who are able to do things with the help of AI.
The technology by itself will not produce a great society however. We need democracy to accomplish that. As people will have more free time they will have time to study and more and more people will demand democracy because they will understand it's the only way to avoid wars.
Yes, exactly. And agreed, it’s not clear. (Hopefully I conveyed wide error bars, my whole point is that certainty seems unjustified at this point in time.)
It's not even that, the way markets work is inherently unpredictable, in a self fixing way.
If someone finds a way to actually predict the market, then in taking advantage of that they will add unpredictability into it again. This is part of the entire basis of how markets work!
The number of people on planet earth who deeply understand the current state of the art in LLMs, the available information in a format an LLM can "reason about", good ways to condense information so that X v Y decisions can be made across a lot of Xs and Ys, and deeply understand how to do value investing in a practical way and enough about a set of industries to pull it off, is about zero.
Regardless, I'd happily take a bet at even money up to a reasonable sum that we'll wake up in 20 years to find that a system using LLMs has just destroyed the market doing fundamental analysis, for 15 years.
