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>Sure its still hard but unlike those who did it first, those coming after don't have to guess as much and spend resources on dead ends.

In many domains they do. Once the original creators are retiring or not involved, there are tons of tacit knowledge at every step of the way, from the high level abstract design to specific quirks of some manufacturing equipment, that's very hard to build back.



Catching up is usually easier than pushing the frontier.Once you know that it's possible, it becomes a matter of iteration.


So it will take less than sixty years. Yes, I can believe that.




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