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I think the important part of the problem is the unstated assumptions around it, and I suspect some people may see different assumptions than others.

If Monty always opens a door, and uses his knowledge of which door has the prize to ensure that the door he opens is always empty, then you should switch, because he's providing you with extra information about which door has the prize.

However, if Monty changes it up and sometimes doesn't open a door, or opens the door with the prize, the whole problem changes. If he only opens a door and offers you the chance to switch when you've picked the door with the prize, you should never switch of course. If he opens a random door and might reveal the prize (after which he obviously won't let you switch anymore), switching doesn't change your odds. I think a lot of people see it as one of those two situations.



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