You don't need to be a cutting edge research scientist to train a SOTA LLM. You just need money for scaling. OpenAI's "secret" was just their willingness to spend tens/hundreds of millions without guaranteed returns, and RLHF/instruct fine tuning, both of which are out of the bag now.
Disagree. It took more than 12 months from the release of GPT-4 to someone else producing a model of equivalent quality, and that definitely wasn't due to a shortage of investment from the competition.
There's a huge amount of depth in training a really good LLM. Not helped by the fact that iteration is incredibly expensive - it might take several months (and millions of dollars) before you can tell if your new model is working well or if there was some mistake in the pipeline that lead to a poor quality result.
Almost all of the world-class LLMs outside of OpenAI/DeepMind have been trained by people who previously worked at those organizations - giving them invaluable experience such that they could avoid the most expensive mistakes while training their new models.
Don’t overlook the training data (used for both training and instruction fine-tuning), it is one of the most crucial aspects, if not the most critical, given the significant differences observed in models with similar architectures.
While I do agree there is some amount of secret sauce, keep in mind the training takes several months. So from someone to see the success of GPT4, decide they want to invest that amount of money to train the same, raise the money to train the model, find someone competent to supervise the training, train the model for several months, then test and integrate it could easily be a year long even if there was no secret sauce.
That only remains an advantage if they can continue climbing the gradient from their lead position. If they hit a snag in scaling, methodology, or research, everyone else on the planet catches up, and then it's anyone's game again.
When it comes to LLMs, metrics are misleading and easy to game. Actually talking to it and running it through novel tasks that require ability to reason very quickly demonstrates that it is not on par with GPT-4. As in, it can't solve things step-by-step that GPT-4 can one-shot.
This was exactly my experience. I have very complex prompts and I test them on new models and nothing performs as well as GPT-4 that I've tried (Claude 3 Opus included)
