Anything released from the ISS will initially be in an orbit very similar to the ISS. That's because the initial difference in velocity between the object and the ISS will be measured in meters per second or less (which is small compared to the orbital velocity measured in kilometers per second).
Then the orbit of the released object will start to slowly decay because of (at that altitude, a very small amount of) air resistance. The details of that depend on the shape, size and mass of the object. It can even depend on unexpected solar activity which can cause the Earth's atmosphere to puff up minutes[1]. The ISS counteracts this by periodically boosting its orbit.
The longer the orbital decay takes, the more the uncertainty adds up. The fix to accurately "aim" an object, is to strap it to a rocket and perform a deorbit burn, to slow down from orbital velocity. This way the reentry process can be more reliably aimed at the middle of the Pacific or something like that. But that's expensive.
Anything released from the ISS will initially be in an orbit very similar to the ISS. That's because the initial difference in velocity between the object and the ISS will be measured in meters per second or less (which is small compared to the orbital velocity measured in kilometers per second).
Then the orbit of the released object will start to slowly decay because of (at that altitude, a very small amount of) air resistance. The details of that depend on the shape, size and mass of the object. It can even depend on unexpected solar activity which can cause the Earth's atmosphere to puff up minutes[1]. The ISS counteracts this by periodically boosting its orbit.
The longer the orbital decay takes, the more the uncertainty adds up. The fix to accurately "aim" an object, is to strap it to a rocket and perform a deorbit burn, to slow down from orbital velocity. This way the reentry process can be more reliably aimed at the middle of the Pacific or something like that. But that's expensive.
[1] https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/solar-storm-knocks...