It's easy to see which one is more successful. Every time you blame something on Russia, people come out of the woods "explaining" why Russia is actually the victim (Russia is ALWAYS the victim, is what I've learned from this people).
Russia definitely has a non zero amount of people supporting or apologizing it's actions all around the world.
It's dangerous to assume all of the content you see is simply some shady operation or fake, having controversial opinions on any topic is nothing new, millions of Americans don't believe in the moon landings.
In general I don't think it's a good idea to discuss politics online, and I feel like many talk too much geopolitics but can't even tell the policies or programs of their own city mayor candidates which are way more important for their own lives and directly impacting.
In regard to local issues being way more impactful in one's life:
If one is from, or has close contacts in or from the regions affected by geopolitics -- then this is unfortunately very much not the case.
As disappointed as I am with local politicians -- they aren't bombing my friends into the ground, or forcing them to move halfway across the planet indefinitely. Or causing these to deal with significant emotional anguish, even if they aren't forced to move, or directly under threat.
While a solid contingent on HN regularly either apologies for / minimizes their actions, or just seems to shoot from its hip based on their hunch as to what is happening, without any indication of having done much research or questioning their sources. Or even just thinking logically about the various narratives they're reading. For most of them it seems to be more about ideological abstractions than anything real and concrete, in any case.
So that, plus the simple fact that this is a global community is why geopolitics floats to the top, as it were.
Whether talking about it online is productive or helpful in any way is another matter altogether. Turns out it's generally not easy to talk about these things in person, even with people one knows rather well (as most of the time they'd prefer to talk about pretty much anything but "the situation").
Being as the "shit" in question is all too real for them.
It's easy to see which one is more successful. Every time you blame something on Russia, people come out of the woods "explaining" why Russia is actually the victim (Russia is ALWAYS the victim, is what I've learned from this people).