Half of riders evading bus fare is third-world country levels of dysfunction. How does a developed country get to that point? And is it even possible to get things back on track? I imagine you could institute harsh punishments for fare evaders, but if you need to do that, you’ve already lost. You can’t beat orderliness into people.
I was curious about your claim, having spent time abroad in Germany and never having seen an honor system. In fact, what your link describes is not an honor system but a proof-of-payment system. Proof-of-payment systems are common in the US too, for example on Caltrain in the Bay Area (which reportedly has very low fare evasion rates).
Proof-of-payment works on Caltrain because they have conductors who will walk up and down the aisles to examine your ticket/scan your Clipper card for payment. On busses, which don't have conductors, it really is an honor system.
Also, some systems have had to transition from proof-of-payment to fare gates - I know Vancouver had to do so on Skytrain a decade or so ago. I think proof-of-payment works best on a commuter line like Caltrain, where there are a few main nodes. In Caltrain’s case, that would be San Jose, Millbrae (connects to the airport and BART), and San Francisco, along with perhaps Palo Alto. I could probably take a train from Mountain View to San Jose without ever encountering a conductor, and perhaps even the other direction. But they know most people are riding all the way, so they only need to check a few times.
I suspect that the biggest reason for the low fare evasion rate on Caltrain is that the line serves a relatively-wealthy clientele for whom the fare isn't a burden. Many of Caltrain's patrons even get subsidies from the companies they're commuting to.
Interestingly, until recently fare evasion on Caltrain was a criminal infraction. In the past few years, Caltrain has moved to a flat $75 civil penalty instead (like a parking ticket), which I believe ended up earning Caltrain more money overall because it's less hassle for conductors.
In Germany they have Kontrollieren who come through the buses and check all the passengers. The frequency varies from line to line, but you generally won't be allowed to get away with not paying for long. I have no doubt that if they weren't there, fare evasion would be high even in Germany (and this isn't a recent thing--my experience is from 2003).
I wonder how the frequency is now. A lot can change in 20 years. I’m also surprised that Kontrollieren can fit on the busses - during peak hours, busy bus routes generally are standing room only.
On the other end of the spectrum, Istanbul has turnstiles at bus stops, just like a subway.
Half of riders evading bus fare is third-world country levels of dysfunction. How does a developed country get to that point? And is it even possible to get things back on track? I imagine you could institute harsh punishments for fare evaders, but if you need to do that, you’ve already lost. You can’t beat orderliness into people.