> But it's strange to see zero acknowledgement of the massive increase in money supply over the same time period.
Because when you look at inflation in the period of say ~2000 to ~2025 [1] it's really not very obvious that there's an increase in M2 from '08 onward.
Talking about M2 as a source of inflation is like shouting Red at a roulette wheel. Sure, sometimes the ball will land on Red but your shouting is a non-sequitur on the result.
They look pretty similar to me. Chaotic in the short term, but averaging positive between 0-1%. In other words, slow but consistent exponential growth. I didn't say anything about a discontinuity in '08, I'm not sure what point you're trying to make with that.
Maybe you can see something in that noise, but I just plotted those and looked at their correlations, and it's garbage. Even looking at their sums, they have different slopes (over decades), all you can say is "number go up". The monthly correlation is junk, the yearly correlation of their sums is junk, the decade long optimally lagged correlation is junk (include 2008-2010 and it's worse). I had to look, because I wondered if there was some interesting coincidence, but there's not.
Now, if what you're trying to say is that the much larger (non M2) eurodollar currency correlates to long term global growth and inflation, yeah that's true. There is a trillion $ industry maintaining that called the banking system. But the idea that eggs, oil, lumber, or rent are well correlated is not even a funny joke. Gold and bitcoin are a bit different because they are so financialized, but I wouldn't go day trading them just based on Fed stats either.
Because when you look at inflation in the period of say ~2000 to ~2025 [1] it's really not very obvious that there's an increase in M2 from '08 onward.
Talking about M2 as a source of inflation is like shouting Red at a roulette wheel. Sure, sometimes the ball will land on Red but your shouting is a non-sequitur on the result.
[1]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USM657N