The irony is that if we don't invest into defense, war would still likely break-out, but we may suffer less (or die less) because of a quick loss.
Now we have a weak army in the EU, if Russia invades one of our friends, then the war will be over in two days because France, Germany, USA will do their usual "we condemn blablabla, we send you prayers and sympathy", but there would be no long-lasting war.
A bit similar to Ukraine, it's a half-assed initiative, drowning billions of USD, but not efficient enough.
If the answer had been much stronger, it would have worked, but now we get the worst of the two options (doing nothing, or going all-in).
Also not to forget, that at the end of the rifle, it's not people saving their house, it's about protecting a system that supports the wealth of politics.
The main difference for the invaded people would be to whom they pay taxes, and ironically, could now be facing sanctions from their supposed friends (like the living folks in Crimea, who got punished by US/EU; punished because they have been invaded and victims of a war).
In the second case, if EU defense is increased moderately (like currently plans), war would still breakout but it may drag for longer, and casualties without increasing odds of winning.
The third case, where EU alone without the US is significantly stronger than China, Russia and North Korea, it's nice but I don't see it happening.
Like you said, Macron is likely going to be replaced with pro-Russian Le Pen / Zemmour-like.
If you think that with russians rolling over whole Europe the only thing changing is to whom you pay taxes that's a grave mistake on your understanding and borderline insulting to those of us like me who grew up under direct soviet cough cough russian oppression and have their parent's lives very effectively ruined by it.
Ever wondered why eastern part of EU is so vastly different to western EU regarding mentality? Why east has corruption as BAU at all levels, is a bit nihilistic in world view, and certainly doesn't trust at all some centralized Brussel control? It wasn't nearly as bad right after WWII. But we had it all from them, oppression, absolute lack of freedom on North Korea level, political executions, people gone to gulags or uranium mines with basically no ticket back for the horrible crimes of ie fighting nazis as allied pilots in Britain. The damage to whole nations is still felt these days, countries being shadows of their potential, natural resources literally stolen without any payment back (former Czechoslovakia's massive uranium deposits as a random example), especially if you compare them to places 'just across the fence' which experienced freedom, market economy and ie weren't forced to reject Marshall plan.
Russia has absolutely nothing good to offer to any democratic country which was true 100 years ago and is still the fact now, just a spiral downfall into mediocrity and further, rampart corruption and theft and rule of stronger compared to rule of law. Basically a mafia state, they just can't create anything better.
For now, I see (from the EU perspective) that the presidents of the US (Donald Trump and Elon Musk), are absolutely unreliable partners, and that the EU is alone with the problems.
France population is never going to war, Germany also, Italy also, etc, to me it sounds like something that Russia may see as an opportunity.
The best in this situation (like it was with the soviets situation you described) is to prepare a plan to not be stuck in the cross-fires, because it's not the politicians in their plushy beds in Brussels or in Moscow that are suffering.
Its hard to not get 'stuck in the cross-fires' when one side is very directly aiming right at you, wants to kill you, steal your house (or wristwatch like in WWII in massive scale), maybe have fun with your wife and enslave your kids and their kids.
We in western Europe (where I moved just to clarify) are closely aligned with US values and way of life, which russian elite sees as direct attack on their comfy stealy mafia way of life and existential threat. What general russian population thinks is unfortunately irrelevant here, it doesn't manifest in anything concerning rest of the world.
Also look at end of Soviet union - every single member state ran the fuck away from russians with 99.99% speed of light, and will do just about anything to resist being forcefully merged back, including Belarus with lukashenko, or Kazachstan with quite recent demonstrations and subsequent shooting of protesters also helped by russian special forces (friend of ours from there witnessed it firsthand, executions on spot of cca 2,500 protesters one after another, whomever they caught in the streets). They know darn well what they reject and fear, no 'panslav' bullshit made up lies is ever changing that.
Don't think for a second that one can be some really impartial and respected 3rd side, even ultra-neutral Swiss are now much more aligned with west than east (politically, values, but also militarily - check whether their guns work with NATO ammo or russian ones - thats 101 of waging a war and picking up side well before that). There are cca impartial sides out there, but not in Europe or anywhere else near russia.
/rant, I could go on like that for a very long time
Now we have a weak army in the EU, if Russia invades one of our friends, then the war will be over in two days because France, Germany, USA will do their usual "we condemn blablabla, we send you prayers and sympathy", but there would be no long-lasting war.
A bit similar to Ukraine, it's a half-assed initiative, drowning billions of USD, but not efficient enough.
If the answer had been much stronger, it would have worked, but now we get the worst of the two options (doing nothing, or going all-in).
Also not to forget, that at the end of the rifle, it's not people saving their house, it's about protecting a system that supports the wealth of politics.
The main difference for the invaded people would be to whom they pay taxes, and ironically, could now be facing sanctions from their supposed friends (like the living folks in Crimea, who got punished by US/EU; punished because they have been invaded and victims of a war).
In the second case, if EU defense is increased moderately (like currently plans), war would still breakout but it may drag for longer, and casualties without increasing odds of winning.
The third case, where EU alone without the US is significantly stronger than China, Russia and North Korea, it's nice but I don't see it happening.
Like you said, Macron is likely going to be replaced with pro-Russian Le Pen / Zemmour-like.
The world is getting dangerous.