I have been thinking a lot about this parable (introduced to me by Bluey) in relation to the current surge of GenAI https://btribble.com/well-see/
> A conviction that the future is bright isn't enough to actually make the future bright.
Well said.
We have to be curious, open, and ready to use the benefits of technological change, but also skeptical, concerned, and willing to defend social and political norms, too. Wild optimism is potentially very dangerous; hardline pessimism would leave us insufficiently ready to face the moment when we do need to act proactively.
Well, it's at least enough to make the future dark for us. If you believe that there isn't any future worth having, and act on that belief, then your future is likely to be fairly crummy.
And, if enough people in a society believe and act that way, the future is likely to be crummier for the society as a whole, too.
I love that parable. It stands in such contrast to a world where we all feel a pressure to know what’s right and wrong, how things will go etc. The reality is none of us do.
I'm curious where you think this pressure comes from. I don't necessarily feel it myself but a lot of message board content I consume seems to react to this pressure, a pressure to have conviction in right and wrong. Is there something in the zeitgeist you feel that pushes people to have a strong stance?
I can only speak for myself, but what I discovered internally were a few mechanisms of my mind:
1. A fear of the unknown. The mind tries to construct a knowable future in order to feel safe and prepared. It doesn’t matter how accurate it is, it just chooses what’s comfortable.
2. A desire to fit in, be accepted or loved. If our beliefs are reflected by others, it means we are accepted. If the beliefs are attacked, it’s not just a challenge to a belief system but it’s an attack on me and my validity as a person.
I think both of these seem to combine and play out online as we find groups of people who have acceptable beliefs to us. For some people, total pessimism is actually the comfortable perspective (that was me for sure) and for others maybe a blind optimism makes them feel safe.
When both of these fell away I realised how distorting they had been to my world view and my ability to actually engage with changes.
> A conviction that the future is bright isn't enough to actually make the future bright.
Well said.
We have to be curious, open, and ready to use the benefits of technological change, but also skeptical, concerned, and willing to defend social and political norms, too. Wild optimism is potentially very dangerous; hardline pessimism would leave us insufficiently ready to face the moment when we do need to act proactively.