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You don't have to ascribe free will to the politicians; just agency. They have metrics to game, the voters don't, that's enough. For instance, Trump recently tried to get Coca-Cola to replace corn sugar with cane sugar.

It reminds me of WWI attrition tactics..

(I'm trying to analyze the data on this ATM- please tolerate 8my current read. If you've got a better way to say it don't hold back!)

You brought up a "silent minority" effect that I've to think/find out more about. Your friends that disagree with their party line usually stays out of the vote. However,that seems to make (the impact of) the actual swing voter even stronger, according to my very preliminary analysis



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