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I think the author of this blog is not a heavy user of AI in real life. If you are, you know there things AI is very good at, and thing AI is bad at. AI may see exponential improvements in some aspects, but not in other aspects. In the end, those "laggard" aspects of AI will put a ceiling on its real-world performance.

I use AI in my coding for many hours each day. AI is great. But AI will not replace me in 2026 or in 2027. I have to admit I can't make projections many years in the future, because the pace of progress in AI is indeed breathtaking. But, while I am really bullish on AI, I am skeptical of claims that AI will be able to fully replace a human any time soon.



How much better is AI-assisted coding than it was in September 2023?


This all depends on how you define "better".

I am an amateur programmer and tried to port a python 2.7 library to python 3 with GPT5 a few weeks ago.

After a few tries, I realized both myself and the model missed that a large part of the library is based on another library that was never ported to 3 either.

That doesn't stop GPT5 from trying to write the code as best it can with a library that doesn't exist for python 3.

That is the part we have made absolutely no progress on.

Of course, it can do a much better react crud app than in Sept 2023.

In one sense, LLMs are so amazing and impressive and quite fugazi in another sense.


The author is an AI researcher at Anthropic: https://www.julian.ac/about/

He likely has his substantial experience using AI in real life (particularly when it comes to coding).




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